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Testing the impact of direct and indirect flood warnings on population behaviour using an agent-based model
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-20 , DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2281-2020
Thomas O'Shea , Paul Bates , Jeffrey Neal

Abstract. This paper uses a coupled hydrodynamic agent-based model (HABM) to investigate the effect of direct or indirect warnings in flood incident response. This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and the NetLogo agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation of detailed flood dynamics through the event, whilst the agent-based model component enables simulation and analysis of the complex, in-event social response. NetLogo enables alternative probabilistic daily routine and agent choice scenarios for the individuals of Carlisle to be simulated in a coupled fashion with the flood inundation. Specifically, experiments are conducted using a novel “enhanced social modelling component” based on the Bass diffusion model. From the analysis of these simulations, management stress points (predictable or otherwise) can be presented to those responsible for hazard management and post-event recovery. The results within this paper suggest that these stress points can be present, or amplified, due to a lack of preparedness or a lack of phased evacuation measures. Furthermore, the methods outlined here have the potential for application elsewhere to reduce the complexity and improve the effectiveness of flood incident management. The paper demonstrates the influence that emergent properties have on systematic vulnerability and risk from natural hazards in coupled socio-environmental systems.

中文翻译:

使用基于代理的模型测试直接和间接洪水警报对人口行为的影响

摘要。本文使用基于耦合流体动力学代理的模型 (HABM) 来研究直接或间接警告在洪水事件响应中的影响。该模型采用 LISFLOOD-FP 水动力模型和 NetLogo 基于代理的框架,应用于 2005 年英国卡莱尔的洪水事件。水动力模型提供了对整个事件的详细洪水动力学的真实模拟,而基于代理的模型组件可以模拟和分析复杂的事件中的社会反应。NetLogo 使卡莱尔个人的替代概率日常例行程序和代理选择场景能够以与洪水淹没的耦合方式进行模拟。具体来说,实验是使用基于 Bass 扩散模型的新型“增强型社交建模组件”进行的。通过对这些模拟的分析,可以将管理压力点(可预测的或其他的)呈现给负责危害管理和事后恢复的人员。本文中的结果表明,由于缺乏准备或缺乏分阶段疏散措施,这些压力点可能会出现或放大。此外,这里概述的方法有可能在其他地方应用,以降低复杂性并提高洪水事件管理的有效性。本文展示了紧急特性对耦合社会环境系统中自然灾害的系统脆弱性和风险的影响。本文中的结果表明,由于缺乏准备或缺乏分阶段疏散措施,这些压力点可能会出现或放大。此外,这里概述的方法有可能在其他地方应用,以降低复杂性并提高洪水事件管理的有效性。本文展示了紧急特性对耦合社会环境系统中自然灾害的系统脆弱性和风险的影响。本文中的结果表明,由于缺乏准备或缺乏分阶段疏散措施,这些压力点可能会出现或放大。此外,这里概述的方法有可能在其他地方应用,以降低复杂性并提高洪水事件管理的有效性。该论文展示了紧急特性对耦合社会环境系统中自然灾害的系统脆弱性和风险的影响。
更新日期:2020-08-20
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