ABSTRACT The large difference between the producer price of a beef carcass and the retail prices of individual beef cuts has raised concerns among producers. These concerns are caused by the possibility of asymmetry in the market. This study examines the price transmission mechanisms in the beef market by comparing the weekly producer carcass price with a weekly calculated retail carcass price, instead of average retail prices, over a period of three years. It further estimates the causality links between the producer and retail prices. The traditional and standardised augmented Dickey–Fuller procedures were used to test for co-integration and asymmetry in price transmission. Four competing models, namely the Engle–Granger, threshold autoregressive (TAR), momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) and momentum consistent TAR models, were applied. The results indicated that there is positive asymmetric price transmission between producer and retail price as retailers in the market respond quicker to shocks that squeeze their margin than those that stretch them. Market information was found to be flowing from the producer to the retailer.

中文翻译：

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使用计算的零售胴体价格分析牛肉价值链中的价格传导

摘要 牛肉屠体的生产者价格与个别切块牛肉的零售价之间的巨大差异引起了生产者的关注。这些担忧是由市场不对称的可能性引起的。本研究通过比较每周生产者屠体价格与每周计算的零售屠体价格（而不是平均零售价格）来检验牛肉市场的价格传导机制，为期三年。它进一步估计了生产者价格和零售价格之间的因果关系。使用传统和标准化的增广 Dickey-Fuller 程序来测试价格传递中的协整和不对称性。应用了四种竞争模型，即 Engle-Granger、阈值自回归 (TAR)、动量阈值自回归 (M-TAR) 和动量一致 TAR 模型。结果表明，生产者价格和零售价格之间存在正的非对称价格传导，因为市场上的零售商对挤压利润率的冲击比拉伸利润率的冲击反应更快。发现市场信息从生产商流向零售商。