Numerical simulations of three of the most severe historical tropical cyclones to affect the Delaware River Basin (DRB) are used to evaluate a new numerical approach that is a candidate model for the inland‐coastal compound flood forecast. This study includes simulating interactions of tides/surges, freshwater streamflows, winds, and atmospheric pressure for the DRB. One‐way coupling between the hydrologic (National Water Model [NWM]) and the ocean/wave (ADvanced CIRCulation model/WAVEWATCH III [ADCIRC/WW3]) models for the Delaware river‐estuarine system is developed. The links between the coastal processes and the NWM are provided by two different hydraulic and hydrodynamic models: (i) a well‐calibrated public‐domain 1D hydraulic solver model (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System [HEC‐RAS]) and (ii) 1D/2D open‐sourced hydrodynamic model (D‐Flow Flexible Mesh [D‐Flow FM]). First, the modeling system is tested to confirm model verification and stability when the system is forced with only tidal forcing. Then, the relative performance of each modeling approach (NWM/D‐Flow FM/ADCIRC/WW3 and NWM/HEC‐RAS/ADCIRC/WW3) is evaluated using observational data from Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Furthermore, the sensitivity of water level prediction to the streamflows, different wind products, and bed roughness are examined. Results show that the D‐Flow FM is generally accurate for water levels: the water levels near the peak of the storms have a skill ranging from 0.79 to 0.91 with a negligible phase error. Simulations show that water level predictions depend on an accurate representation of the wind conditions and bottom roughness. The work shows that hydrodynamic predictions, especially upstream, are highly dependent on the streamflow discharges.

中文翻译：

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暴雨事件下河口-河口系统的新型1D / 2D耦合建模方法：在特拉华河流域的应用

对影响特拉华河流域（DRB）的三个最严重的历史热带气旋的数值模拟被用来评估一种新的数值方法，该方法是内陆-沿海复合洪水预报的候选模型。这项研究包括模拟潮汐/潮汐，淡水水流，风和大气压对DRB的相互作用。开发了特拉华河河口系统的水文模型（国家水模型[NWM]）和海浪模型（高级循环模型/ WAVEWATCH III [ADCIRC / WW3]）之间的单向耦合。沿海过程与NWM之间的联系由两种不同的水力和水动力模型提供：（i）一个经过良好校准的公共领域一维水力求解器模型（Hydrologic Engineering Center' s河流分析系统[HEC-RAS]）和（ii）1D / 2D开源水动力模型（D-Flow柔性网格[D-Flow FM]）。首先，当仅用潮汐强迫施压时，对建模系统进行测试以确认模型验证和稳定性。然后，每种建模方法的相对性能（NWM /使用来自飓风伊莎贝尔（2003），艾琳（2011）和桑迪（2012）的观测数据评估了D-Flow FM / ADCIRC / WW3和NWM / HEC-RAS / ADCIRC / WW3 ）。此外，还检查了水位预测对流量，不同风产品和床面粗糙度的敏感性。结果表明，d-流量FM一般为水位准确：风暴的峰值附近的水位有本事从0.79到0.91微不足道的相位误差。仿真表明，水位预测取决于风力状况和底部粗糙度的准确表示。这项工作表明，尤其是上游的水动力预测高度依赖于流量的排放。