Low-cost electricity-storage technologies (ESTs) enable rapid decarbonization of energy systems. However, current EST cost estimates lack meaningful models to assess alternative market and technology scenarios. Here, we project the competition between six ESTs until 2030 and derive cost benchmarks. To this end, a system-dynamic simulation model operationalizes technology costs using component-based experience curves with cost floors for battery materials. We find that lithium-ion batteries are likely to outcompete alternative ESTs by 2030 across applications and largely independent of selected scenarios. This dominance can pose risks associated with technological lock-in. We, therefore, analyze different policy options and contend that it seems most promising to combine: (1) the support for development and commercialization of breakthrough storage concepts and (2) piggybacking on the strong improvement dynamics in lithium-ion batteries by fostering technology and knowledge spillovers that benefit the development of alternative active materials; battery designs; and adjacent, non-lithium-based technologies.

低成本的电力存储技术（ESTs）可实现能源系统的快速脱碳。但是，当前的EST成本估算缺乏有意义的模型来评估替代市场和技术方案。在这里，我们预测到2030年之前六个EST之间的竞争，并得出成本基准。为此，系统动态仿真模型使用基于组件的经验曲线（含电池材料的成本底价）来操作技术成本。我们发现，到2030年，锂离子电池在所有应用中都可能胜过替代EST，并且在很大程度上不受所选方案的影响。这种优势可能带来与技术锁定相关的风险。因此，我们分析了不同的政策选择，并认为结合起来似乎最有希望：（1）支持突破性存储概念的开发和商业化；（2）通过促进有益于替代活性材料开发的技术和知识外溢，piggy带锂离子电池的强劲改进动力；电池设计；以及相邻的非锂基技术。