ABSTRACT

Climate change will have a significant impact on the forest industry and will require strategies that promote sustainable forest management. Understanding perceptions of climate change impacts is critical to supporting the use of adaptation strategies, informing future research, and supporting decision-making. We describe a multi-method approach using nominal group technique and semi-structured interviews to identify and understand experts’ concerns in regards to future climate change impacts on the forest industry in Maine, USA. A review of the existing scientific literature helped inform the development of the interview and nominal group techniques. Experts prioritized the greatest and most likely climate change impacts on the forest industry as: forest health threats imposed by insects and pathogens, extreme precipitation events, shifts in forest composition, invasive species, and changes in forest productivity. Interviews and current scientific understanding largely support the prioritization of the impacts, but also elucidate uncertainties in regards to climate change perceptions (e.g., timing and magnitude of future impacts), highlight the need for continued research that specifically addresses how climate change will affect the forest industry, and demonstrate that climate change presents not only a perceived threat but also an opportunity in the form of increased forest productivity and economic growth.

摘要

气候变化将对林业产生重大影响，需要制定促进可持续森林管理的战略。了解对气候变化影响的看法对于支持使用适应策略、为未来研究提供信息和支持决策至关重要。我们描述了一种使用名义小组技术和半结构化访谈的多方法方法，以识别和理解专家对未来气候变化对美国缅因州森林工业的影响的担忧。对现有科学文献的回顾有助于为访谈和名义小组技术的发展提供信息。专家们将最大和最可能的气候变化对林业的影响列为优先事项：昆虫和病原体对森林健康造成的威胁、极端降水事件、森林组成的变化、入侵物种和森林生产力的变化。访谈和当前的科学理解在很大程度上支持对影响进行优先排序，但也阐明了气候变化感知方面的不确定性（例如，未来影响的时间和幅度），强调需要继续研究，专门解决气候变化将如何影响森林业，并证明气候变化不仅是一种可察觉的威胁，而且是提高森林生产力和经济增长形式的机会。