Reconstructing geographic range sizes from fossil data is a crucial tool in paleoecology, elucidating macroecological and macroevolutionary processes. Studies examining links between range size and extinction risk may also offer a predictive tool for identifying species most vulnerable in the “sixth mass extinction.” However, the extent to which paleogeographic ranges can be recorded reliably in the fossil record is unknown. We perform simulation-based extinction experiments to examine (1) the fidelity of paleogeographic range size preservation in deep time, (2) the relative performance of different methods for reconstructing range size, and (3) the reliability of detecting patterns of extinction “selectivity” on range size. Our results suggest both that relative paleogeographic range size can be consistently reconstructed and that selectivity patterns on range size can be preserved under many extinction intensities, even when sedimentary rocks are scarce. By identifying patterns of selectivity across Earth’s history, paleontologists can thus augment neontological work that aims to predict and prevent extinctions of living species. Last, we find that introducing “false extinctions” in the fossil record can produce spurious range-selectivity signals. Errors in the temporal ranges of species may pose a larger barrier to reconstructing range size–extinction risk signals than the spatial distribution of fossiliferous sediments.

中文翻译：

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深度范围内古地理范围大小分布的高保存潜力。

从化石数据重建地理范围大小是古生态学中的关键工具，它阐明了宏观生态学和宏观进化过程。研究范围大小与灭绝风险之间的联系的研究也可能提供一种预测工具，以识别“第六次大规模灭绝”中最脆弱的物种。但是，尚不清楚在化石记录中可可靠记录古地理范围的程度。我们执行基于模拟的灭绝实验，以研究（1）在深层时间内保存古地理范围大小的保真度，（2）重构范围大小的不同方法的相对性能，以及（3）检测“灭绝”选择性模式的可靠性在范围大小上。我们的结果表明，既可以重建相对的古地理范围大小，又可以在许多灭绝强度下保持范围大小的选择性模式，即使在沉积岩稀少的情况下也是如此。通过确定整个地球历史上的选择性模式，古生物学家可以加强旨在预测和防止生物物种灭绝的新生物学工作。最后，我们发现在化石记录中引入“虚假灭绝”会产生虚假的距离选择性信号。与化石沉积物的空间分布相比，物种时间范围内的误差可能对重构范围大小-灭绝风险信号构成更大的障碍。通过确定整个地球历史上的选择性模式，古生物学家可以加强旨在预测和防止生物物种灭绝的新生物学工作。最后，我们发现在化石记录中引入“虚假灭绝”会产生虚假的距离选择性信号。与化石沉积物的空间分布相比，物种时间范围的误差可能对重构范围大小-灭绝风险信号构成更大的障碍。通过确定整个地球历史上的选择性模式，古生物学家可以加强旨在预测和防止生物物种灭绝的新生物学工作。最后，我们发现在化石记录中引入“虚假灭绝”会产生虚假的距离选择性信号。与化石沉积物的空间分布相比，物种时间范围内的误差可能对重构范围大小-灭绝风险信号构成更大的障碍。