Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in‐hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics, P_H and P_P, which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four‐crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower, P_H and P_P were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in‐hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four‐crop systems composed of rye‐grass–dandelion pasture, trefoil–grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, and P_H (269.5 kg) and P_P (108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil–grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land‐use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.

中文翻译：

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蜜蜂群落性能受作物多样​​性和农田结构影响：建模框架。

有人建议将饲料的可利用性作为观察到的蜜蜂数量下降的驱动力。然而，关于其时空变化对菌落成功的影响知之甚少。我们提供了一个评估种植系统中蜜蜂群体生存力的建模框架。基于两个真实的农田结构，我们开发了一种景观生成器，以设计在作物种类标识，多样性和相对丰度方面均不同的耕作系统。使用现有的蜜蜂群落模型BEEHAVE对生成的景观方案进行了评估，该模型将觅食与蜂巢动力学联系起来。因此，我们探索了不同的耕作系统如何确定时空饲草的可利用性，进而确定蜂群的生存力（例如，灭绝时间，TTE）和适应力（例如，育雏死亡率）。为了评估总体菌落的生存能力，P _H和P _P量化了种植系统每年提供的多少花蜜和花粉被转化为该殖民地的成年工人数量。作物物种的身份和多样性决定了花蜜和花粉供应的时间连续性，从而决定了菌落的生存能力。总体农田结构和相对作物丰度并不重要，但细节很重要。P _H和P _P适用于由谷物，油菜，玉米和向日葵组成的单一作物和四作物物种系统低于生存能力阈值。这样的耕作系统显示出频繁，时间安排不当和延长的草料缺口，从而导致对生命阶段和蜂巢劳动力的有害连锁反应，从而严重降低了菌落的适应力。黑麦草-蒲公英牧草，三叶草草牧场，向日葵和phacelia组成四作物系统确保连续花蜜和花粉供应导致TTE> 5岁，和P _ħ（269.5公斤）和P _P（108公斤）超过生存极限5年。总体而言，三叶草牧场，油菜，荞麦和phacelia改善了草料供应和种群生存能力的时间连续性。我们的结果是假想的，因为它们是从简化的景观设置中获得的，但是它们仍然与经验观察结果相匹配，特别是与生存能力阈值相匹配。我们的框架可用于评估种植系统对蜜蜂生存力的影响，并制定土地利用策略，通过避免长期和不良的饲草间隔来帮助维持授粉服务。