Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures.

中文翻译：

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两种综合评估模型对欧洲生物多样性和生态系统服务的未来预测

对于生物多样性和生态系统服务（BES）未来变化的预测，对于为保护和​​可持续利用BES的备选方案提供政策和决策信息越来越重要。基于场景的建模是评估这些未来变化的强大工具。这项研究从BES角度设计了四种社会环境情景下评估了欧洲BES的后果。我们使用两个集成的评估模型（分别为IMAGE-GLOBIO和CLIMSAVE IAP）评估了这些方案。我们的结果表明：（i）即使在最乐观的情况下，气候和土地使用的变化将继续对生物多样性和某些生态系统服务构成重大威胁；（ii）四种情况均未在欧洲完全保存BES；（iii）有针对性的政策（例如关于气候变化，生物多样性保护和可持续土地管理）和行为改变（例如减少肉食，节水行为）减少了BES损失的程度。这些发现强调，要维护欧洲的BES，就必须采取更大胆的政策和行动。我们进一步发现，多模型方法对于解释补充的BES维度至关重要，并强调了不确定性的不同来源（例如，与土地使用分配，BES改变背后的驱动力，贸易假设有关），这有助于对可能的BES期货。这些发现强调，要维护欧洲的BES，就必须采取更大胆的政策和行动。我们进一步发现，多模型方法对于解释补充的BES维度至关重要，并强调了不确定性的不同来源（例如，与土地使用分配，BES改变背后的驱动力，贸易假设有关），这有助于对可能的BES期货。这些发现强调，要维护欧洲的BES，就必须采取更大胆的政策和行动。我们进一步发现，多模型方法对于解释补充的BES维度至关重要，并强调了不确定性的不同来源（例如，与土地使用分配，BES改变背后的驱动力，贸易假设有关），这有助于对可能的BES期货。