This paper describes the first uncertainty analysis for drilling stability using a frequency-domain drilling stability model. The stability model inputs include: the modal parameters for the torsional-axial vibration mode from the twist drill-holder-spindle axial frequency response function; and the mechanistic coefficients that relate the torque and thrust force to chip area for the selected drill-workpiece material combination. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to propagate the input uncertainties to output uncertainty in the predicted stability map, which separates stable from unstable (chatter) zones in the spindle speed-chip width parameter space. The mean stability boundary and its 95% confidence intervals are determined for five cases: varying all four inputs simultaneously and varying them individually. This enables the individual sensitivities to be compared. Experimental results from drilling tests are included for comparison to the prediction. Additionally, Matlab code is provided to implement the stability model and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis.

本文介绍了使用频域钻井稳定性模型对钻井稳定性进行的首次不确定性分析。稳定性模型的输入包括：来自麻花钻刀架-主轴轴向频率响应函数的扭转-轴向振动模式的模态参数；以及 以及将扭矩和推力与所选钻头-工件材料组合的切屑面积相关联的机械系数。应用蒙特卡罗模拟在预测的稳定性图中将输入不确定性传播到输出不确定性，从而将主轴速度-切屑宽度参数空间中的稳定区与不稳定区（颤动区）分开。确定了五种情况的平均稳定性边界及其95％置信区间：同时更改所有四个输入并分别更改它们。这使得可以比较各个灵敏度。包括钻井测试的实验结果，用于与预测结果进行比较。另外，提供了Matlab代码以实现稳定性模型和蒙特卡洛不确定性分析。