Abstract The statistical inference of the Equivalent Initial Flaw Size Distribution (EIFSD) is developed for the first time using the Dual Boundary Element Method (DBEM) for assembled shear deformable plate structures. As part of this inference procedure, Bayesian updating is employed to enable the continuous refinement of the EIFSD via data obtained by many simulated routine inspections of a stiffened panel from a fleet of aircraft. Fatigue crack growth is modelled using an incremental crack growth procedure that only requires modelling of the boundary of the 2.5D structure with line elements and requires no remeshing during crack growth simulations. Stochastic Kriging is employed to account for the stochastic nature of fatigue crack growth and to offset the high computational cost associated with modelling complex built-up structures. To demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed inference methodology, a numerical example featuring a stiffened panel subjected to complex loading in the form of combined tension and bending is presented. Once the EIFSD has been inferred, it can be used to optimise the intervals between routine aircraft inspections via the use of reliability analysis techniques as part of a combined reliability-EIFS approach. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology offers the capability to reduce the costs associated with inspections.

中文翻译：

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组合板结构等效初始缺陷尺寸的双边界元法统计推断

摘要 利用双边界元法 (DBEM) 首次开发了等效初始缺陷尺寸分布 (EIFSD) 的统计推断，用于组装剪切变形板结构。作为此推理过程的一部分，贝叶斯更新用于通过对一组飞机的加强板的许多模拟例行检查获得的数据来持续改进 EIFSD。疲劳裂纹扩展使用增量裂纹扩展程序进行建模，该程序只需要使用线元素对 2.5D 结构的边界进行建模，并且在裂纹扩展模拟期间不需要重新划分网格。随机克里金法用于解释疲劳裂纹扩展的随机性，并抵消与复杂组合结构建模相关的高计算成本。为了证明所提出的推理方法的效率，提出了一个数值示例，该示例以承受复合拉伸和弯曲形式的复杂载荷的加筋板为特征。一旦推断出 EIFSD，就可以通过使用可靠性分析技术作为组合可靠性-EIFS 方法的一部分来优化常规飞机检查之间的间隔。事实证明，所提出的方法提供了降低与检查相关的成本的能力。通过使用可靠性分析技术作为组合可靠性-EIFS 方法的一部分，它可用于优化常规飞机检查之间的间隔。事实证明，所提出的方法提供了降低与检查相关的成本的能力。通过使用可靠性分析技术作为组合可靠性-EIFS 方法的一部分，它可用于优化常规飞机检查之间的间隔。事实证明，所提出的方法提供了降低与检查相关的成本的能力。