The paper analyses effects of changes in temperatures on heating and cooling demands in Europe until 2050. Specifically, the study addresses changes in trends (10-year mean) and extremes (10-year min/max). The analysis is based on two GHG emission climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and eight high-resolution regional climate models and results are provided as relative and absolute changes on grid and country scales. Population density is used as proxy for spatial distribution of demands.

Projected future temperatures are proportional with RCP scenario and distance into the future and the highest relative changes occur towards north-eastern Europe and for high-altitude areas. The temperature changes lead to general decreased heating demands and corresponding increased cooling demands. In general, higher spreads are seen between demand change ratios for individual models when addressing extremes as opposed to trends: The general 2010–2050 change ratios for heating between countries are 0.85–95 for model means and average 0.69 for the extreme analysis. For cooling, corresponding ratios are 1.25–1.5 for model means and average 2.76 for model maxima. For absolute demand changes, some countries are projected to experience significant changes e.g. exceeding a doubling in cooling demands. The results are suggested as a basis for energy system analyses.

该论文分析了温度变化对欧洲到2050年供暖和制冷需求的影响。特别是，该研究研究了趋势（10年平均值）和极端（10年最小值/最大值）的变化。该分析基于两个温室气体排放气候情景（RCP2.6和RCP4.5）和八个高分辨率区域气候模型，并提供了网格和国家规模的相对和绝对变化的结果。人口密度用作需求空间分布的代理。

预计的未来温度与RCP情景和未来的距离成正比，相对最高的变化发生在东北欧洲和高海拔地区。温度变化导致总体上减少的加热需求和相应增加的冷却需求。通常，在处理极端情况而不是趋势时，各个模型的需求变化率之间存在较大的价差：模型均值在2010-2050年间国家之间的总体变化率在0.85-95之间，极端分析的平均值在0.69之间。对于冷却，模型平均值的对应比率为1.25–1.5，模型最大值的平均值为2.76。对于绝对需求变化，预计一些国家将经历重大变化，例如，制冷需求增加一倍以上。