Abstract The three main goals of ecological economic theory seek to predict and prevent system breakdowns. However chaos theory and human uncertainty/ignorance guarantee that shocks, breakdowns and catastrophes like COVID-19 will increasingly occur due to converging environmental resource crises. The challenge then is designing a resilient (safe-fail) economy that can endure, adapt to and successfully recover from breakdowns and avoid collapse. To date little attention has been paid in ecological economics to the implications of resilience for broader economic decisions affecting the design of global civilization. This paper provides a general introduction to resilience and an argument for why it should become a much larger focus of ecological economic research going forward. Five arguments are advanced for why resilience should not be subsumed under an existing goal, including that efforts to build resilience have the potential to both complement and contradict the other three goals, especially efficiency. The Resilience Alliance‘s adaptive cycle highlighting the cost to resilience of increasing scale and complexity meshes readily with ecological economist's own critiques of growth, encouraging increased collaboration between these transdisciplines. The need to further study these tensions provides justification for adding “Resilient Design” as a distinct fourth policy goal to core ecological economic theory.

中文翻译：

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活到一天：探索韧性作为生态经济学的新四目标

摘要 生态经济理论的三个主要目标力求预测和防止系统崩溃。然而，混沌理论和人类的不确定性/无知保证了像 COVID-19 这样的冲击、崩溃和灾难会由于环境资源危机的汇聚而越来越多地发生。然后面临的挑战是设计一个能够承受、适应并成功从故障中恢复并避免崩溃的弹性（安全故障）经济。迄今为止，生态经济学很少关注弹性对影响全球文明设计的更广泛经济决策的影响。本文提供了对弹性的一般介绍，并论证了为什么它应该成为未来生态经济研究的更大焦点。关于为什么不应将弹性纳入现有目标的五个论点，包括建立弹性的努力有可能与其他三个目标相辅相成，尤其是效率。弹性联盟的适应性循环强调了增加规模和复杂性的弹性成本，很容易与生态经济学家自己对增长的批评相吻合，鼓励这些跨学科之间加强合作。进一步研究这些紧张局势的需要为将“弹性设计”作为一个明显的第四个政策目标添加到核心生态经济理论提供了理由。弹性联盟的适应性循环强调了增加规模和复杂性的弹性成本，很容易与生态经济学家自己对增长的批评相吻合，鼓励这些跨学科之间加强合作。进一步研究这些紧张局势的需要为将“弹性设计”作为一个明显的第四个政策目标添加到核心生态经济理论提供了理由。弹性联盟的适应性循环强调了增加规模和复杂性的弹性成本，很容易与生态经济学家自己对增长的批评相吻合，鼓励这些跨学科之间加强合作。进一步研究这些紧张关系的需要为将“弹性设计”作为一个明显的第四个政策目标添加到核心生态经济理论提供了理由。