Future storm-induced inundation risks were assessed by performing storm surge modeling based on Typhoon Maemi (2003) under the generic climate change scenarios proposed by IPCC AR5. The three physical factors governing the projected aggravation of inundation damage in a coastal basin (i.e., sea-level rise (SLR), direct runoff (DR) and tropical cyclones (TCs)) were defined and considered in the modeling both individually and in combination. With the application of a coupled hydrodynamic–hydrologic model, the inundation extent during the storm event under both current and year 2100 climate conditions was evaluated, and the impact of each factor on the inundation risk was identified. The intercomparison among the results revealed that SLR was the most influential single flooding driver aggravating the future inundation risk, and TC intensification was two-thirds as influential as SLR. However, DR was predicted to make a nearly negligible contribution and to have a minimal impact despite its significant projected increase in the future. Apart from the contributions of these three factors to aggravating the inundation level, the ways in which they affected the inundation risk were quite distinct. Additionally, the result considering both SLR and TC intensification demonstrated that nonlinear interactions between these factors can occur and further amplify the inundation damage. Finally, it was revealed that, depending on the level of the climate change projection, future storms with intensified rainfall and TC properties are likely to cause the maximum projected inundation damage in the study area to increase by up to 28.7% in inundation extent and by 236.6% in inundation volume relative to the current conditions without altering the spatial pattern of the inundation depth distribution.

在IPCC AR5提出的一般气候变化情景下，通过基于台风Maemi（2003）进行风暴潮建模，评估了未来风暴诱发的洪水风险。在建模中，定义并考虑了控制沿海盆地淹没破坏预计加剧的三个物理因素（即海平面上升（SLR），直接径流（DR）和热带气旋（TCs）） 。通过应用水动力水文耦合模型，评估了当前和2100年气候条件下风暴事件期间的淹没程度，并确定了每个因素对淹没风险的影响。结果之间的比较表明，SLR是最有影响力的单一洪水驱动因素，加剧了未来的淹没风险，TC的影响力是SLR的三分之二。然而，尽管预计DR在未来会显着增加，但DR的贡献几乎可以忽略不计，并且影响最小。除了这三个因素加剧淹没程度外，它们对淹没风险的影响方式也非常不同。此外，同时考虑了SLR和TC增强的结果表明，这些因素之间可能发生非线性相互作用，并进一步加剧了淹没破坏。最后，我们发现，根据气候变化预测的水平，未来降雨强度和TC属性增强的风暴很可能导致研究区域的最大预计淹没破坏在淹没程度和范围内增加多达28.7％。 236。