Spatio-temporal modelling of land use allows an analysis of change considering socio-economic, ecological and biophysical factors. We developed a ‘spatially explicit’ model to simulate land use/cover change in the Calakmul realm during the Late Classic period, taking into account the relationship between population density, agriculture strategies and erosion and drought. Different scenarios were simulated, combining agricultural systems, patterns of distribution of settlements, population densities and rainfall variability. The models showed that scenarios based on slash-and-burn agriculture only exhibit a collapse, with population densities much lower than those widely accepted by archaeologists. The simulation that implements a combination of slash-and-burn and intensive agriculture presents a population collapse around AD 860 in concordance with the records of the abandonment of the Maya Lowlands by the Terminal Classic. Spatially explicit land change models can be useful in reconstructing past environmental conditions and understanding the role of management practices and environmental change in the successes and failures of past societies.

土地使用的时空模型可以考虑社会经济，生态和生物物理因素对变化进行分析。考虑到人口密度，农业策略与侵蚀和干旱之间的关系，我们开发了一个“空间显性”模型来模拟晚古典时期卡拉克穆尔地区的土地利用/覆盖变化。模拟了不同的情景，结合了农业系统，定居点的分布方式，人口密度和降雨多变性。这些模型显示，基于刀耕火种的农业的情景仅表现出崩溃，人口密度远低于考古学家广泛接受的人口密度。结合砍伐，焚烧和集约农业的模拟，根据终端经典放弃了玛雅低地的记录，在公元860年左右出现了人口崩溃。空间明确的土地变化模型可用于重建过去的环境状况，并了解管理实践和环境变化在过去社会的成败中的作用。