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Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change
Weather ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-16 , DOI: 10.1002/wea.3824
Caroline M. Wainwright 1, 2 , Declan L. Finney 3 , Mary Kilavi 4 , Emily Black 1, 2 , John H. Marsham 2, 3
Affiliation  

The 2019 October-December rains over East Africa were one of the wettest seasons on record, with many locations receiving more than double the climatological rainfall, leading to floods and landslides across the region. Above average rainfall continued into January 2020. The persistently high rainfall also contributed to the locust plagues that affected much of East Africa in January 2020. Wet conditions in East Africa are typically associated with El Nino and/or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. In October-December 2019 a warm anomaly was present in the western Indian Ocean while a cool anomaly was present in the eastern Indian Ocean (a positive Indian Ocean Dipole); conditions known to give above average rainfall over East Africa. The warm anomaly in the western Indian Ocean persisted into January 2020. Seasonal and monthly forecasts correctly predicted above average rainfall during the October-December season. January rainfall is found to be correlated with sea surface temperatures over the western Indian Ocean. Climate model projections suggest that strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole events and wet October-December seasons may become more frequent under future climate change, with associated increased risks of floods.

中文翻译:

2019 年 10 月至 2020 年 1 月东非的极端降雨以及未来气候变化的背景

2019 年 10 月至 12 月东非的降雨是有记录以来最潮湿的季节之一,许多地方的气候降雨量是气候降雨量的两倍多,导致该地区发生洪水和山体滑坡。高于平均水平的降雨量持续到 2020 年 1 月。持续的高降雨量也导致了 2020 年 1 月影响东非大部分地区的蝗灾。东非的潮湿条件通常与厄尔尼诺和/或印度洋偶极子事件有关。2019 年 10 月至 12 月,印度洋西部出现暖异常,印度洋东部出现冷异常(印度洋正偶极子);已知在东非产生高于平均降雨量的条件。西印度洋的暖异常持续到 2020 年 1 月。季节性和月度预报正确预测了 10 月至 12 月季节高于平均水平的降雨量。发现 1 月的降雨量与西印度洋的海面温度有关。气候模型预测表明,在未来的气候变化下,强烈的正印度洋偶极子事件和潮湿的 10 月至 12 月季节可能会变得更加频繁,从而导致洪水风险增加。
更新日期:2020-08-16
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