Inflection point in climatic suitability of insect pest species in Europe suggests non‐linear responses to climate change,Global Change Biology

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Inflection point in climatic suitability of insect pest species in Europe suggests non‐linear responses to climate change
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-15 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15313
Marc Grünig _{1,

2,

3} , Pierluigi Calanca ₂ , Dominique Mazzi ₁ , Loïc Pellissier _{3,

4}

Affiliation

Climate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species’ climatic suitability will be linear or rather non‐linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover, uncertainty of forecasts can arise because of the modelling approach based either on species distribution data or on physiological measurements. Here, we compared the predictions of two modelling approaches (physiological models and species distribution models) for forecasting the potential distribution of agricultural insect pests in Europe. Despite conceptual differences, we found good agreement overall between the two approaches. We further identified a potential regime change in pest pressure along a temperature gradient. With both modelling approaches, we found an inflection point in the number of pest species with suitable climatic conditions around a minimum temperature of the coldest month of −3°C. Our results could help decision‐makers anticipate the onset of rising pest pressure and provide support for intensifying surveillance measures, particularly in regions where temperatures are already beyond the inflection point.

中文翻译：

欧洲病虫害气候适应性的拐点表明对气候变化的非线性响应

气候变化和全球化影响着农作物和虫害的适宜条件，威胁着未来的粮食安全。物种的气候适应性变化是线性的还是非线性的，仍然是未知的，当超过临界温度阈值时，农作物对害虫的暴露突然增加。此外，由于基于物种分布数据或生理测量的建模方法，可能导致预测的不确定性。在这里，我们比较了两种建模方法（生理模型和物种分布模型）的预测，以预测欧洲农业害虫的潜在分布。尽管在概念上存在差异，但我们发现两种方法总体上具有良好的一致性。我们进一步确定了有害生物压力沿温度梯度的潜在变化。通过这两种建模方法，我们发现在最冷的-3月最低温度附近具有合适气候条件的有害生物物种数量出现了拐点。我们的结果可以帮助决策者预测有害生物压力上升的开始，并为加强监测措施提供支持，特别是在温度已经超过拐点的地区。

更新日期：2020-10-19

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