In this study, we present a novel methodology that may be used to analyze tsunami risk along coastal regions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Economic, social and environmental dimensions of risk are calculated and aggregated to obtain the overall risk maps for a number of elements at risk (EaR) that are identified from seven countries located along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. Historical earthquakes that are recorded in the region during the period 1900–2013 are used as data, and probabilistic tsunami modeling is carried out using Monte Carlo analysis. Based on historical data, randomly generated earthquakes are simulated, and wave propagation analysis is performed using NAMI-DANCE software. Inundation depth–damage analysis and exceedance probabilities of tsunami inundations are used to evaluate social and economic risks while the environmental risk is calculated using a binary approach. The overall risk map is constructed in the geographic information system environment. Cairo Agricultural Area in Egypt and Fethiye City in Turkey are identified as high-risk EaR in the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. The new risk assessment methodology may be utilized in coastal regions of the world, and the results obtained for the Eastern Mediterranean may be effectively used in developing preventive measures and disaster management strategies for tsunamis that may develop the region.

在这项研究中，我们提出了一种可用于分析沿海地区海啸风险的新颖方法。拟议方法的应用已在地中海东部海岸得到了证明。计算并汇总风险的经济，社会和环境维度，以获得从位于东地中海海岸线沿线七个国家中识别出的许多风险要素（EaR）的总体风险图。将该地区在1900-2013年期间记录的历史地震用作数据，并使用蒙特卡洛分析进行了概率海啸建模。根据历史数据，模拟随机产生的地震，并使用NAMI-DANCE软件进行波传播分析。淹没深度-海啸淹没的破坏分析和超标概率用于评估社会和经济风险，而环境风险则使用二元方法进行计算。整体风险图是在地理信息系统环境中构建的。埃及的开罗农业区和土耳其的费特希耶市被确定为东地中海海岸线上的高风险EaR。新的风险评估方法可以在世界沿海地区使用，从东地中海获得的结果可以有效地用于制定可能开发该地区的海啸的预防措施和灾难管理策略。整体风险图是在地理信息系统环境中构建的。埃及的开罗农业区和土耳其的费特希耶市被确定为东地中海海岸线上的高风险EaR。新的风险评估方法可以在世界沿海地区使用，从东地中海获得的结果可以有效地用于制定可能开发该地区的海啸的预防措施和灾难管理策略。整体风险图是在地理信息系统环境中构建的。埃及的开罗农业区和土耳其的费特希耶市被确定为东地中海海岸线上的高风险EaR。新的风险评估方法可以在世界沿海地区使用，从东地中海获得的结果可以有效地用于制定可能开发该地区的海啸的预防措施和灾难管理策略。