Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined utility outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We present a case study to demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance of the system. The case study shows that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20 percent to 95 percent when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the case study building.

中文翻译：

---

DER系统的概率弹性-一种模拟辅助优化方法。

随着主要电网中断频率的增加，能源系统的弹性变得越来越重要。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种方法，用于优化仪表背后的分布式能源系统，以在预定义的公用事业中断期间承受站点的关键负荷。在固定系统设计的基础上，我们随后提出了一种中断模拟方法，以估算DER系统在超过固定中断时间后承受负载的弹性潜力-长达一年的弹性性能分析。我们应用统计分析以每小时，每月和每年为基础，在更广泛的参数问题空间中评估系统的弹性性能。我们提供了一个案例研究，以证明预定义的中断时间对系统的弹性性能的影响。