ABSTRACT

This study investigates the temporal variability and trend of temperature and rainfall in Gelana sub-watershed, northern highlands of Ethiopia. The study employed a mixed methods approach, but overwhelmingly relied on gridded monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data at a resolution of 10 × 10 km. The quantitative data were analyzed using standardized rainfall anomaly, precipitation concentration index, coefficient of variation and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis. The results indicated that rainfall over “Kiremit” and “Belg” seasons is found highly variable in the study area. The annual total rainfall has shown an increasing trend of 0.05 mm per year. The MK test results showed that “Kiremit” rainfall has a positive increasing trend, while Belg rainfall showed a statistically significant decreasing trend. A warming trend of annual maximum and minimum temperature has been observed over the study area. The study suggests strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems and to reduce the likelihood of production risks.

摘要

本研究调查了埃塞俄比亚北部高地 Gelana 子流域的温度和降雨的时间变化和趋势。该研究采用了混合方法，但主要依赖于分辨率为 10 × 10 km 的网格化月降雨量和最高和最低温度数据。使用标准化降雨异常、降水浓度指数、变异系数和曼肯德尔 (MK) 趋势分析对定量数据进行了分析。结果表明，研究区发现“Kiremit”和“Belg”季节的降雨量变化很大。年总降雨量呈逐年增加0.05毫米的趋势。MK 试验结果表明，“Kiremit”降雨量呈正增加趋势，而Belg 降雨量呈统计学显着下降趋势。研究区观测到年最高气温和最低气温呈增温趋势。该研究提出了增强农业系统适应能力和降低生产风险可能性的战略。