ABSTRACT

The paper investigates gasoline consumption in case of oil-exporting country applying Time-varying Coefficient Cointegration approach to the data from 1980 to 2017. Empirical estimations show that long-run income and price elasticities are not constant and are responsive to price and income fluctuations in the period considered. The income elasticity of gasoline demand increased until 2014, peaking at 0.151, following growth in disposable income, before declining to 0.136 in 2017. However, consumers do not stop driving when their disposable incomes fall, resulting in a less elastic response of gasoline demand to income. Price elasticities sit in the range of −0.31 to −0.05, becoming less elastic when prices are low and vice versa.

The findings of the study may be useful in successful implementation of energy price reforms and implementation of environmental policies.

摘要

本文采用时变系数协整方法对1980年至2017年的数据对石油输出国的汽油消费情况进行了调查。经验估计表明，长期收入和价格弹性不是恒定的，并且对价格和收入波动具有响应性。所考虑的时期。汽油需求的收入弹性一直增长到2014年，在可支配收入增长之后达到0.151的峰值，然后在2017年下降到0.136。但是，消费者在可支配收入下降时并没有停止驾驶，因此汽油需求的弹性降低了收入。价格弹性在-0.31至-0.05的范围内，当价格较低时弹性变小，反之亦然。

该研究的结果可能对成功实施能源价格改革和实施环境政策很有帮助。