Since its revolution in 2010, Tunisia has known a drastic decrease of its GDP reaching the lowest level during the two last decades. In this context, this paper examines the relationship between oil prices, GDP and energy consumption for Tunisia over the 1986–2014 period. The error-correction model (VECM) is employed to investigate the dynamic causality relationships among the variables. In the short run, we find unidirectional causality from oil price and energy consumption to GDP, but this does not indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and GDP to oil price. In the long run, our results suggest the existence of a bi-directional Granger causality between oil price, energy consumption, and GDP. We thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in Tunisia, such as encouraging the development of renewable energy, controlling energy consumption through more ambitious programs of energy efficiency and rational use of energy.

自2010年革命以来，突尼斯的国内生产总值急剧下降，达到近二十年来的最低水平。在这种情况下，本文研究了突尼斯在1986-2014年期间的油价，GDP和能源消耗之间的关系。误差校正模型（VECM）用于研究变量之间的动态因果关系。在短期内，我们发现从油价和能源消耗到GDP的单向因果关系，但这并不表示从能源消耗和GDP到油价的单向因果关系。从长远来看，我们的结果表明，油价，能源消耗和GDP之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。因此，我们提出了解决突尼斯能源与可持续发展困境的政策建议，