Abstract The traditional risk evaluation of coal spontaneous combustion in goafs in China is unilateral and inaccurate, which can be attributed to the fact that only the change in coal properties is considered and the external environment of coal is ignored. According to latest research, the factors affecting coal spontaneous combustion in goafs is determined by the systems-theoretic accident model and processes, from which a risk index system is established. Then, a comprehensive risk evaluation model for coal spontaneous combustion in goafs is constructed with the analytic hierarchy process, unascertained measurement theory and combination weighting method, which divides the risk of coal spontaneous combustion into four levels. The model is tested in three goafs in different coal mines. Findings show that the model is objective and valid and can be applied to the risk evaluation of coal spontaneous combustion in goafs in coal mines.

中文翻译：

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基于系统论事故模型与过程的采空区煤自燃综合风险评价

摘要 我国传统的采空区煤炭自燃风险评价是片面的、不准确的，其原因是只考虑了煤炭性质的变化，而忽略了煤炭的外部环境。根据最新研究，采空区煤自燃的影响因素由系统论事故模型和过程确定，并由此建立风险指标体系。然后，运用层次分析法、未确知测度理论和组合加权法构建采空区煤炭自燃综合风险评价模型，将煤炭自燃风险分为四个等级。该模型在不同煤矿的三个采空区进行了测试。