Vehicle electrification is a common climate change mitigation strategy, with policymakers invoking co‐beneficial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air pollutant emissions. However, while previous studies of U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption consistently predict CO₂ mitigation benefits, air quality outcomes are equivocal and depend on policies assessed and experimental parameters. We analyze climate and health co‐benefits and trade‐offs of six U.S. EV adoption scenarios: 25% or 75% replacement of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, each under three different EV‐charging energy generation scenarios. We transfer emissions from tailpipe to power generation plant, simulate interactions of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology using the GFDL‐AM4 chemistry climate model, and assess health consequences and uncertainties using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program Community Edition (BenMAP‐CE). We find that 25% U.S. EV adoption, with added energy demand sourced from the present‐day electric grid, annually results in a ~242 M ton reduction in CO₂ emissions, 437 deaths avoided due to PM_2.5 reductions (95% CI: 295, 578), and 98 deaths avoided due to lesser ozone formation (95% CI: 33, 162). Despite some regions experiencing adverse health outcomes, ~$16.8B in damages avoided are predicted. Peak CO₂ reductions and health benefits occur with 75% EV adoption and increased emission‐free energy sources (~$70B in damages avoided). When charging‐electricity from aggressive EV adoption is combustion‐only, adverse health outcomes increase substantially, highlighting the importance of low‐to‐zero emission power generation for greater realization of health co‐benefits. Our results provide a more nuanced understanding of the transportation sector's climate change mitigation‐health impact relationship.

中文翻译：

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美国汽车电气化的公共健康和气候效益及权衡

_{汽车电气化是一种常见的气候变化缓解策略，政策制定者呼吁减少二氧化碳 (CO 2} ) 和空气污染物排放，实现双赢。然而，虽然之前对美国电动汽车 (EV) 采用情况的研究一致预测了 CO ₂减排效益，但空气质量结果却是模棱两可的，并且取决于评估的政策和实验参数。我们分析了美国电动汽车采用六种情景的气候和健康协同效益和权衡：传统内燃机汽车替代 25% 或 75%，每种情景均在三种不同的电动汽车充电发电情景下。我们将排放物从尾气管转移到发电厂，使用 GFDL-AM4 化学气候模型模拟大气化学和气象的相互作用，并使用美国环境保护局效益绘图分析计划社区版 (BenMAP-CE) 评估健康后果和不确定性。我们发现，美国 25% 的电动汽车采用率以及来自当前电网的能源需求增加，每年可减少约 2.42 亿吨 CO ₂排放，并因 PM _{2.5 的}减少而避免 437 人死亡（95% CI：295 , 578)，由于臭氧形成较少，避免了 98 人死亡 (95% CI: 33, 162)。尽管某些地区的健康状况不佳，但预计可避免约 16.8B 美元的损失。通过 75% 的电动汽车采用率和增加无排放能源，可实现CO _{2峰值减少和健康益处（避免损失约 70B 美元）。}当积极采用电动汽车产生的充电电力仅是燃烧时，不利的健康结果会大幅增加，这凸显了低至零排放发电对于更大程度地实现健康协同效益的重要性。我们的结果提供了对交通运输部门减缓气候变化与健康影响关系的更细致的了解。