Processing information about probabilities is an integral part of decision making under risk. Even when objective probabilities are explicitly provided, people tend to distort them, which is reflected by an inverted S‐shaped probability weighting function. Such distortions depend on different factors such as numeracy and affect. The present study contributes to the understanding of how people use probabilities in risky decision making by introducing the concept of consistency in probability processing―a measure of how coherent people are in using objective probabilities. We hypothesized that consistency would depend on factors similar to those that influence the shape of the probability weighting function. Moreover, we predicted that probability processing consistency would be related to better decision outcomes in an experimental betting task. In three experiments, participants were presented with the probability of a potential gain/loss and had to place a bet on a given chance to maximize their total earnings. We defined probability processing consistency as the variance of bets placed on the same probability value, with higher variance indicating lower consistency. We found that consistency in probability processing was lower in relatively affect‐rich conditions and greater for people with higher numeracy. Additionally, people who exhibited more consistent processing of probabilities gained higher earnings from the experimental task irrespective of whether their betting strategy was optimal and of their risk preference. Our findings imply that consistency in processing probabilities may be an important factor in understanding betting strategies and the quality of decisions.

中文翻译：

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情感处理和算术的函数在概率处理中的一致性

处理有关概率的信息是风险决策中不可或缺的一部分。即使明确给出了客观概率，人们也倾向于使它们失真，这通过倒S型概率加权函数来反映。这种失真取决于不同的因素，例如计算能力和影响力。本研究通过引入概率处理中的一致性概念来衡量人们在风险决策中如何使用概率，这是人们使用客观概率的一致性度量。我们假设一致性将取决于类似于那些影响概率加权函数形状的因素。此外，我们预测概率处理一致性将与实验性博彩任务中更好的决策结果相关。在三个实验中，向参与者展示了潜在收益/损失的可能性，并且必须押注给定的机会以使他们的总收入最大化。我们将概率处理一致性定义为对相同概率值下注的方差，方差越大表明一致性越低。我们发现，在相对富裕的条件下，概率处理的一致性较低，而对于具有较高计算能力的人，概率处理的一致性较高。另外，表现出更一致的概率处理的人从实验任务中获得了更高的收益，而不管他们的投注策略是否是最佳的以及他们的风险偏好如何。我们的发现表明，处理概率的一致性可能是理解博彩策略和决策质量的重要因素。