Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing development and continuation of sustainable aquaculture in temperate regions. We primarily consider the ecological and physical resilience of aquaculture in the Gulf of Maine (GoM), where a thriving industry includes marine algae, extensive and intensive shellfish aquaculture, and a well‐established Atlantic salmon industry, as well as the infrastructure required to support these economically important ventures. The historical record of sea surface temperature in the GoM, estimated from gridded, interpolated in situ measurements, shows considerable interannual and decade‐scale variability superimposed on an overall warming trend. Climate model projections of sea surface temperature indicate that the surface waters in the GoM could warm 0.5–3.5°C beyond recent values by the year 2100. This suggests that, while variability will continue, anomalous warmth of marine heatwaves that have been observed in the past decade could become the norm in the GoM ca. 2050, but with the most significant impacts to existing aquaculture along the southernmost region of the coast. We consider adaptations leading to aquacultural resilience despite the effects of warming, larger numbers of harmful nonindigenous species (including pathogens and parasites), acidification, sea‐level rise, and more frequent storms and storm surges. Some new species will be needed, but immediate attention to adapt existing species (e.g. preserve/define wild biodiversity, breed for temperature tolerance and incorporate greater husbandry) and aquaculture infrastructure can be successful. We predict that these measures and continued collaboration between industry, stakeholders, government and researchers will lead to sustaining a vibrant working waterfront in the GoM.

中文翻译：

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冷水养殖的复原力：缅因湾气候变化的可能情景回顾

气候变化是温带地区发展和持续发展可持续水产养殖面临的最大挑战之一。我们主要考虑缅因湾（GoM）的水产养殖的生态和物理复原力，该市的蓬勃发展产业包括海藻，广泛而集约化的贝类水产养殖业以及成熟的大西洋鲑鱼产业，以及支持该产业所需的基础设施这些具有经济意义的企业。GoM中海面温度的历史记录，通过网格化，现场插值估算得出测量结果表明，总体变暖趋势上叠加了相当大的年际和十年尺度变化。气候模型对海表温度的预测表明，到2100年，GoM中的地表水温度可能会比最近的值升高0.5-3.5°C。这表明，尽管将继续变化，但在海平面观测到的海洋热波的异常温暖。过去十年可能成为GoM ca中的规范。2050年，但对沿海最南端地区的现有水产养殖影响最大。尽管变暖，有害的非本地物种（包括病原体和寄生虫）数量增加，酸化，海平面上升以及更频繁的风暴和风暴潮等因素的影响，我们仍认为适应能够导致水产养殖的适应力。将需要一些新物种，但是立即取得成功以适应现有物种（例如，保护/定义野生生物多样性，进行耐温育种并纳入更多畜牧业）和水产养殖基础设施将是成功的。我们预计，这些措施以及行业，利益相关方，政府和研究人员之间的持续合作将导致在GoM中维持充满活力的工作滨水区。