Abstract Housing affordability is an issue of increasing importance and interest, particularly in the United States. Much of this interest is due to skyrocketing rents in coastal cities with tight housing markets. Shrinking cities, in contrast, are often characterized as rich in low-cost housing, providing an affordable alternative to superstar cities. This paper compares income and rent dynamics in cities with growing versus shrinking populations. While costs may be lower in shrinking cities, falling incomes have likely rendered housing unaffordable for many residents. We employ multiple lines of evidence to test for different dynamics between growing and shrinking cities. Matching is used to explore changes in income and rent between 1980 and 2017 in shrinking and the most similar non-shrinking cities. After controlling for baseline conditions, shrinking cities exhibit faster falling incomes and growing cities exhibit faster rising rents, while rent burden increases at a very similar rate in both groups. We also use a fixed effects regression model to test for differences between growing and shrinking cities in sensitivity of rent burden to changes in income and rent. Rent burden has considerably increased across US cities since 1980, yet growing and shrinking cities exhibit clearly different pathways toward that end. Shrinking cities are more sensitive to identical changes in income and rent, likely because a greater share of their residents live near the edge of affordability.

中文翻译：

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增长和收缩城市租金负担的差异驱动因素

摘要 住房负担能力是一个越来越重要和越来越受到关注的问题，尤其是在美国。这种兴趣在很大程度上是由于沿海城市住房市场紧张的租金飙升。相比之下，收缩城市通常以廉价住房丰富为特征，为超级明星城市提供了一种负担得起的替代方案。本文比较了人口增长与人口减少的城市的收入和租金动态。虽然收缩城市的成本可能较低，但收入下降可能使许多居民无法负担住房。我们采用多条证据来测试增长和收缩城市之间的不同动态。匹配用于探索 1980 年至 2017 年收缩城市和最相似的非收缩城市的收入和租金变化。控制基线条件后，收缩城市的收入下降速度更快，发展中的城市租金上涨速度更快，而租金负担在两组中的增长速度非常相似。我们还使用固定效应回归模型来测试增长和收缩城市之间在租金负担对收入和租金变化的敏感性方面的差异。自 1980 年以来，美国各城市的租金负担显着增加，但发展和收缩的城市却表现出明显不同的途径。收缩城市对收入和租金的相同变化更为敏感，这可能是因为它们的居民中有更多的人生活在负担能力的边缘。我们还使用固定效应回归模型来测试增长和收缩城市之间在租金负担对收入和租金变化的敏感性方面的差异。自 1980 年以来，美国各城市的租金负担显着增加，但发展和收缩的城市却表现出明显不同的途径来实现这一目标。收缩城市对收入和租金的相同变化更为敏感，这可能是因为它们的居民中有更多的人生活在负担能力的边缘。我们还使用固定效应回归模型来测试增长和收缩城市之间在租金负担对收入和租金变化的敏感性方面的差异。自 1980 年以来，美国各城市的租金负担显着增加，但发展和收缩的城市却表现出明显不同的途径来实现这一目标。收缩城市对收入和租金的相同变化更为敏感，这可能是因为它们的居民中有更多的人生活在负担能力的边缘。