ABSTRACT

Objective: This study examines the effects of dynamic risk factors on handgun carrying from adolescence into young adulthood.

Method: A nationally representative sample of 8,679 individuals (ages 12–26; 51.1% male; 58% White, 26.8% African American; 21.2% Hispanic ethnicity) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997 cohort) interviewed at least three times across nine annual waves is used to estimate effects on handgun carrying. Key predictors include gang membership, selling and using drugs, violent crime, and arrest. Using mixed effects models, we focus on within-individual effects across three timeframes from ages 12 to 26: 1) predictors and handgun carrying measured concurrently, 2) predictors measured across one year and handgun carrying measured in the final month of the same year, and 3) predictors measured in the wave before handgun carrying. We also contrast estimates by sex and age.

Results: All theoretically relevant predictors statistically significantly predict handgun carrying across the first two timeframes. However, none are statistically significant predictors of handgun carrying in the following year. Few significant sex and age differences emerge.

Conclusions: Handgun carrying is an ephemeral behavior particularly during adolescence. The predictors of handgun carrying, which are grounded in gangs, drug use/sale, and crime involvement, appear to have short-term impacts that are consistent across age as well as across sex. Consequently, future work should focus on shorter-term changes in models and there is no evidence that intervention efforts must take fundamentally different approaches to reduce handgun use among males versus females or adolescents versus adults.

摘要

目的：本研究考察了动态风险因素对从青春期到青年期持枪的影响。

方法：来自全国青年纵向调查（1997 年队列）的 8,679 名具有全国代表性的样本（12-26 岁；51.1% 男性；58% 白人，26.8% 非裔美国人；21.2% 西班牙裔）至少接受了 3 次访谈九年波用于估计对手枪携带的影响。关键预测因素包括帮派成员身份、销售和使用毒品、暴力犯罪和逮捕。使用混合效应模型，我们专注于从 12 岁到 26 岁的三个时间范围内的个人内部效应：1) 同时测量的预测变量和携带手枪，2) 跨一年测量的预测变量和同年最后一个月测量的手枪携带，和 3) 在携带手枪之前在波浪中测量的预测因子。我们还按性别和年龄对比估计。

结果：所有理论上相关的预测因子在统计上显着地预测了前两个时间范围内的手枪携带情况。然而，没有一个是第二年携带手枪的统计显着预测因素。很少出现显着的性别和年龄差异。

结论：携带手枪是一种短暂的行为，尤其是在青春期。以帮派、毒品使用/销售和犯罪活动为基础的持枪预测因素似乎具有在不同年龄和性别中一致的短期影响。因此，未来的工作应侧重于模型的短期变化，并且没有证据表明干预措施必须采取根本不同的方法来减少男性与女性或青少年与成人之间的手枪使用。