Background

Sweden has in recent years witnessed increasing rates of firearm-related violence and homicide, which has contributed to increased rates of deadly violence. Attempts to profile offenders committing such crimes are of major importance, because such efforts may contribute to better preventive measures. We therefore aimed to study the characteristics of individuals convicted and/or suspected of homicide, attempted homicide, preparation to commit homicide as well as conspiration to commit homicide (for simplicity called homicide+) in Sweden.

Methods

By using information from the Swedish Crime Register and the Swedish Criminal Suspect Register, individuals being 15–60 years old and convicted and/or suspected of homicide+ between 2000 and 2015 were included in the study. Using these registers and also other population and health care registers, information on previous criminality, substance abuse, and psychiatric disorders were added to the Latent Class Analysis (LCA) that was used to identify latent classes of individuals convicted and/or suspected for homicide+. In addition, several individual variables were added for validation purposes.

Results

A total of 14,466 individuals were included in the analysis. The majority were male (n = 12,802; 88.5%) and Swedish-born with Swedish-born parents (n = 8247; 57.0%). The LCA identified three classes where Conviction Class (CC) contained mostly convicted individuals whereas Mixed Class A (MCA) and Mixed Class B (MCB) contained almost equal rates of both convicted and suspected individuals. The CC was characterized by individuals with low rates of previous criminality, substance abuse and psychiatric disorders. The MCA and the MCB were characterized by individuals with higher rates of previous criminality, substance abuse, and psychiatric disorders as well as lower education and worse economy in comparison with the CC.

Conclusion

While MCA and MCB may be constituted by “traditional” criminals often well known by the police and/or the social authorities, the CC was mainly constituted by convicted offenders who may more easily escape the radar of the authorities.

中文翻译：

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瑞典的致命暴力：通过潜在的阶级分析对罪犯进行分析。

背景

近年来，瑞典目睹了与枪支有关的暴力和杀人事件的增加，这导致致命暴力事件的增加。试图对犯下此类罪行的犯罪者进行简介非常重要，因为这种努力可能有助于采取更好的预防措施。因此，我们旨在研究在瑞典被定罪和/或涉嫌杀人，未遂杀人，准备杀人以及共谋杀人的个人特征（简称为杀人+）。

方法

通过使用瑞典犯罪登记簿和瑞典犯罪嫌疑人登记簿中的信息，研究纳入了2000年至2015年之间15-60岁并被定罪和/或涉嫌凶杀的个人。使用这些登记簿以及其他人口和卫生登记簿，将有关先前犯罪，药物滥用和精神疾病的信息添加到潜在类别分析（LCA）中，该信息用于识别被定罪和/或涉嫌杀人+的个人的潜在类别。此外，还添加了几个单独的变量以进行验证。

结果

分析中总共包括14466个人。多数是男性（n  = 12,802； 88.5％）和瑞典出生，并有瑞典出生的父母（n  = 8247； 57.0％）。LCA确定了三个类别，其中定罪类（CC）包含大多数定罪的个人，而混合A类（MCA）和B类（MCB）包含定罪和可疑个人的比率几乎相等。CC的特征是以前犯罪，吸毒和精神疾病的发生率较低。与CC相比，MCA和MCB的特征是先前犯罪，吸毒和精神疾病的发生率较高，受教育程度较低，经济状况较差。

结论

虽然MCA和MCB可能由警察和/或社会当局经常熟知的“传统”罪犯组成，但CC主要由定罪的罪犯组成，他们可能更容易逃脱当局的注意。