The COVID-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS-CoV-2) has spread around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions have been applied, their efficiencies are not known quantitatively. We show that the doubling time T d ( t ) with the success s factor , the characteristic time of the exponential growth of T d ( t ) in the arrested regime, is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution and provides a quantitative measure of the success of different containment measures. The efficiency of the containment policy lockdown case finding mobile tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than that of the lockdown stop and go policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London. A very low s factor was reached by the LFT policy, giving the shortest time width of the positive case cu...

中文翻译：

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通过测量与时间有关的倍增时间，Covid-19移动联系人跟踪遏制的效率。

新型冠状病毒（严重急性呼吸系统综合症SARS-CoV-2）的COVID-19流行病已在全球蔓延。尽管已应用了使用非药物干预措施的不同遏制政策，但其效率尚无法定量了解。我们表明，倍增时间T d（t）与成功因素s，被捕制时期T d（t）指数增长的特征时间，是流行病传播时间演变的早期预测的可靠工具，并提供了定量衡量不同遏制措施成功与否的方法。使用强制性移动联系人跟踪的遏制策略锁定案例查找移动跟踪（LFT）的效率比伦敦帝国理工学院团队提出的锁定停走策略的效率高得多。