Sibling (cousin) correlations are empirically straightforward: they capture the degree to which siblings’ (cousins’) socioeconomic outcomes are similar. At face value, these quantities seem to summarize something about how families constrain opportunity. Their meaning, however, is complicated. One empirical set of sibling and cousin correlations can be generated from a multitude of distinct theoretical processes. I illustrate this problem in the context of multigenerational mobility: the relationship between the incomes of an ancestor and a descendant separated by several generations in a family. When cousins’ outcomes are similar (an empirical fact), prior authors have favored the particular theoretical interpretation that extended kin affect life chances through pathways not involving the parents of the focal individual. I show that this evidence is consistent with alternative theories of latent transmission (measurement error) or dynamic transmission (a parent-to-child transmission process that changes over generations). Theoretical assumptions are required to lend meaning to a point estimate. Further, I show that point estimates alone may be misleading because they can be highly uncertain. To facilitate uncertainty estimation for the key test statistic, I develop a Bayesian procedure to estimate sibling and cousin correlations. I conclude by outlining how future research might use sibling and cousin correlations as effective descriptive quantities while remaining cognizant that these quantities could arise from a variety of distinct theoretical processes.

中文翻译：

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机会会跨越几代人吗？重新评估兄弟姐妹和表兄弟姐妹相关性的证据。


兄弟姐妹（表兄弟姐妹）相关性在经验上很简单：它们反映了兄弟姐妹（表兄弟姐妹）社会经济结果的相似程度。从表面上看，这些数量似乎概括了家庭如何限制机会。然而，它们的含义很复杂。一组经验性的兄弟姐妹和表兄弟姐妹的相关性可以从大量不同的理论过程中产生。我在多代流动的背景下说明这个问题：一个家庭中相隔几代的祖先和后代的收入之间的关系。当表兄弟姐妹的结果相似时（经验事实），先前的作者倾向于特殊的理论解释，即远亲通过不涉及焦点个体父母的途径影响生命机会。我证明这一证据与潜在传播（测量误差）或动态传播（一代又一代地发生变化的亲子传播过程）的替代理论是一致的。需要理论假设来赋予点估计以意义。此外，我还表明，点估计本身可能会产生误导，因为它们可能具有高度的不确定性。为了促进关键检验统计量的不确定性估计，我开发了一个贝叶斯程序来估计兄弟姐妹和表兄弟姐妹的相关性。最后，我概述了未来的研究如何使用兄弟姐妹和表兄弟姐妹的相关性作为有效的描述量，同时仍然认识到这些量可能来自各种不同的理论过程。