The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km², Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km², Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios.

通过在生态系统服务评估框架中应用了四种方案，研究了北欧生物经济的内在未知的未来发展。该框架将CORINE的土地利用范围与CICES 5.1分类中的15种最终生态系统服务的估算结合在一起，以生物物理和货币的方式估算。目前两个流域的土地使用情况，利勒贝克（83％耕地，面积4.7 km ²，丹麦）和Ovre Haldenvassdraget（67％森林，1006 km ²（挪威）与2050年的四种方案进行了比较。一种方案以可持续性和环境意识为重点，导致土地使用和生态系统服务的提供发生了巨大变化（更多样化的供应和更高的调节服务价值，但总经济价值却没有更高），而其他三个并没有明显偏离当前情况。专家和利益相关者代表对预计的土地利用情景进行了验证。我们得出的结论是，该框架具有足够的分辨率来显示场景之间服务交付的差异。