Projecting landscape impacts from energy development is essential to land management decisions. We forecast landscape alteration resulting from oil and gas well-pad construction across the economically important Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, USA, by projecting current landscape trends through 2050. We modeled three landscape-impact scenarios (low, medium, and high) using recent (2008–2017) trends in well-pad construction and energy production. The results of low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios suggest that ~60,000, ~180,000, and ~430,000 new well pads could be constructed, potentially causing ~1000, ~2800, and ~6700 km 2 of new direct landscape alteration. Almost two-thirds of all new well pads will be constructed within the geologic boundaries of the Delaware and Midland Basins. This translates into a 40, 120, and 300% increase in direct landscape alteration compared with direct alteration from existing well pads. We found that indirect effects (from edges) could increase by twofold, and that the ratio between indirect and direct alteration could decline by half as alteration intensifies and overlaps with existing alteration. The Chihuahuan Desert occupies the largest portion of the study area, and is projected to experience the largest area of alteration from future well-pad construction in the Permian Basin; the degree of direct alteration could increase by 70, 200, and 500% in this desert region, under low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios. These scenarios can be used to design proactive conservation strategies to reduce landscape impacts from future oil and gas development.

中文翻译：

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美国二叠纪盆地石油和天然气开发情景的预计景观影响

预测能源开发对景观的影响对于土地管理决策至关重要。我们通过预测到 2050 年的当前景观趋势，预测了美国德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州具有重要经济意义的二叠纪盆地的石油和天然气井场建设导致的景观变化。我们模拟了三种景观影响情景（低、中和高）使用最近（2008-2017 年）井场建设和能源生产的趋势。低、中和高影响情景的结果表明，可以建造~60,000、~180,000 和~430,000 个新井台，可能导致~1000、~2800 和~6700 km 2 的新直接景观改变. 几乎三分之二的新井场将建在特拉华州和米德兰盆地的地质边界内。这转化为 40, 120, 与现有井场的直接改造相比，直接景观改造增加了 300%。我们发现（来自边缘的）间接影响可能会增加两倍，并且随着变化的加剧和与现有变化的重叠，间接和直接变化之间的比率可能会下降一半。奇瓦环沙漠占研究区面积最大，预计二叠纪盆地未来井场建设改造面积最大；在低、中和高影响情景下，该沙漠地区的直接变化程度可能会增加 70%、200% 和 500%。这些情景可用于设计主动保护策略，以减少未来石油和天然气开发对景观的影响。