Anthropogenic global surface warming is proportional to cumulative carbon emissions1–3; this relationship is partly determined by the uptake and storage of heat and carbon by the ocean4. The rates and patterns of ocean heat and carbon storage are influenced by ocean transport, such as mixing and large-scale circulation5–10. However, existing climate models do not accurately capture the observed patterns of ocean warming, with a large spread in their projections of ocean circulation and ocean heat uptake8,11. Additionally, assessing the influence of ocean circulation changes (specifically, the redistribution of heat by resolved advection) on patterns of observed and simulated ocean warming remains a challenge. Here we establish a linear relationship between the heat and carbon uptake of the ocean in response to anthropogenic emissions. This relationship is determined mainly by intrinsic parameters of the Earth system—namely, the ocean carbon buffer capacity, the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide and the carbon inventory of the ocean. We use this relationship to reveal the effect of changes in ocean circulation from carbon dioxide forcing on patterns of ocean warming in both observations and global Earth system models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We show that historical patterns of ocean warming are shaped by ocean heat redistribution, which CMIP5 models simulate poorly. However, we find that projected patterns of heat storage are primarily dictated by the pre-industrial ocean circulation (and small changes in unresolved ocean processes)—that is, by the patterns of added heat owing to ocean uptake of excess atmospheric heat rather than ocean warming by circulation changes. Climate models show more skill in simulating ocean heat storage by the pre-industrial circulation compared to heat redistribution, indicating that warming patterns of the ocean may become more predictable as the climate warms. A linear relationship between the storage of heat and carbon in global oceans in response to anthropogenic emissions is used to reconstruct the effect of circulation changes on past and future ocean warming patterns.

中文翻译：

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热碳耦合揭示了由于环流变化引起的海洋变暖

人为导致的全球表面变暖与累积碳排放量成正比 1-3；这种关系部分取决于海洋对热量和碳的吸收和储存4。海洋热量和碳储存的速率和模式受海洋运输的影响，例如混合和大规模环流 5-10。然而，现有的气候模型并没有准确地捕捉到观测到的海洋变暖模式，它们对海洋环流和海洋热量吸收的预测有很大的不同8,11。此外，评估海洋环流变化（特别是通过解析的平流进行的热量再分配）对观察到和模拟的海洋变暖模式的影响仍然是一个挑战。在这里，我们建立了响应人为排放的海洋热量和碳吸收之间的线性关系。这种关系主要由地球系统的内在参数决定，即海洋碳缓冲能力、二氧化碳的辐射强迫和海洋的碳存量。我们使用这种关系来揭示二氧化碳强迫的海洋环流变化对第五次耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP5) 的观测和全球地球系统模型中海洋变暖模式的影响。我们表明海洋变暖的历史模式是由海洋热量再分布塑造的，而 CMIP5 模型对此模拟得很差。然而，我们发现预计的蓄热模式主要取决于工业化前的海洋环流（以及未解决的海洋过程的微小变化）——也就是说，由于海洋吸收过多的大气热量而不是环流变化引起的海洋变暖而增加热量的模式。与热量再分配相比，气候模型在模拟工业化前循环的海洋储热方面表现出更多技巧，这表明随着气候变暖，海洋的变暖模式可能变得更加可预测。响应人为排放的全球海洋中热量和碳储存之间的线性关系用于重建环流变化对过去和未来海洋变暖模式的影响。