In 2005, we reported evidence indicating that upcoming phonological word forms—e.g., kite vs. airplane—were predicted during reading. We recorded brainwaves (electroencephalograms [EEGs]) as people read word-by-word and then correlated the predictability in context of indefinite articles that preceded nouns (a kite vs. an airplane) with the average event-related brain potentials (ERPs) they elicited [K. A. DeLong, T. P. Urbach, M. Kutas, Nat. Neurosci. 8, 1117–1121 (2005)]. Amid a broader controversy about the role of word-form prediction in comprehension, those findings were recently challenged by a failed putative direct replication attempt [M. S. Nieuwland et al., eLife 7, e33468 (2018); nine labs, one experiment, and 2.6e4 observations]. To better understand the empirical justification for positing an association between prenominal article predictability and scalp potentials, we conducted a wide-ranging exploratory data analysis (EDA), pooling our original data with extant data from two followup studies (one lab, three experiments, and 1.2e4 observations). We modeled the time course of article predictability in the single-trial data by fitting linear mixed-effects regression (LMER) models at each time point and scalp location spanning a 3-s interval before, during, and after the article. Model comparisons based on Akaike information criteria (AIC) and slope-regression ERPs [rERPs; N. J. Smith, M. Kutas, Psychophysiology 52, 157–168 (2015)] provide substantial empirical support for a small positive association between article predictability and scalp potentials approximately 300 to 500 ms after article onset, predominantly over bilateral posterior scalp. We think this effect may reasonably be attributed to prediction of upcoming word forms.

2005 年，我们报告了证据，表明即将出现的语音单词形式（例如，风筝与飞机）是在阅读过程中预测的。当人们逐字阅读时，我们记录了脑电波（脑电图[EEG]），然后将名词之前的不定冠词（风筝与飞机）上下文中的可预测性与他们的平均事件相关脑电位（ERP）相关联。引发 [KA DeLong、TP Urbach、M. Kutas、Nat。神经科学。 8, 1117–1121 (2005)]。在关于词形预测在理解中的作用的更广泛争议中，这些发现最近受到失败的推定直接复制尝试的挑战 [MS Nieuwland et al., eLife 7, e33468 (2018);九个实验室、一项实验和 2.6e4 观察]。为了更好地理解在名义文章可预测性和头皮潜力之间建立关联的实证依据，我们进行了广泛的探索性数据分析 (EDA)，将我们的原始数据与两项后续研究（一个实验室、三个实验和1.2e4 观察）。我们通过在文章之前、期间和之后 3 秒间隔的每个时间点和头皮位置拟合线性混合效应回归 (LMER) 模型，对单次试验数据中文章可预测性的时间过程进行建模。基于 Akaike 信息标准 (AIC) 和斜率回归 ERP [rERPs； NJ Smith, M. Kutas, Psychophysiology 52, 157–168 (2015)] 为文章可预测性和文章出现后约 300 至 500 毫秒的头皮电位（主要是双侧后头皮）之间的小正相关性提供了实质性的实证支持。 我们认为这种效果可以合理地归因于对即将出现的单词形式的预测。