In this study, the utility of a commercial intravaginal thermometer was evaluated as an automated method for the prediction of calving in a total of 257 healthy pregnant Holstein–Friesian female cattle. The accuracy and the sensitivity of predicting calving within 48 hr before calving were also evaluated. The intravaginal temperature changes from 72 hr before and up to calving were significantly (p ≤ .001) affected by parity, season (summer vs. autumn), the time of day (8 a.m. or 8 p.m.) and the 6‐hr time intervals (38.19°C: first interval 0 to 6 hr before calving vs. 38.78°C: twelfth interval 66 to 72 hr before calving), while the gender (p = .943), and the weight of the calf (p = .610), twinning (p = .300), gestation length (p = .186), foetal presentation (p = .123), dystocia (p = .197) and retention of foetal membranes (p = .253) did not affect it significantly. The sensitivity of the SMS of expecting calving within 48 hr and the positive predictive value were 62.4% and 75%, respectively, while the sensitivity and the positive predictive value for the SMS of expulsion reached 100%. It can be concluded that the investigated thermometer is not able to predict calving within 48 hr accurately; however, imminent calving can be accurately alerted.

中文翻译：

---

在匈牙利的荷斯坦-弗里斯兰奶牛场评估商用阴道内温度计以预测产犊。

在这项研究中，对商用阴道内温度计的实用性进行了评估，作为预测257头健康的荷斯坦-弗里斯兰怀孕雌性犊牛产犊的自动化方法。还评估了产犊前48小时内产犊预测的准确性和敏感性。从72小时的阴道内的温度变化之前和至多产犊均显著（p 受奇偶性，季节（夏季与秋），日（上午8点或8点）的时间≤0.001）和6小时的时间间隔（38.19°C：产犊前的第一个间隔0至6小时，而38.78°C：产犊前的第十二个间隔66至72小时），而性别（p  = .943）和小牛的体重（p  = .610 ），双胞胎（p  = .300），妊娠期（p  = .186），胎儿表现（p  = .123），难产（p  = .197）和胎儿胎膜滞留（p  = .253）没有显着影响。48小时内产犊的SMS敏感性和阳性预测值分别为62.4％和75％，而驱逐SMS的敏感性和阳性预测值达到100％。可以得出结论，被调查的温度计无法在48小时内准确预测产犊；但是，即将发生的产犊可以被准确地警告。