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Development of methodology for assessment of long‐term morphodynamic impact on flood hazard
Journal of Flood Risk Management ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-11 , DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12654
Tomasz Dysarz 1
Affiliation  

A methodology for quantification of the impact of sediment transport on flood hazard is proposed. The applied algorithm consists of several Python scripts for automation of sediment routing, hydrodynamic simulations, and geoprocessing of results. Flood hazard maps are uniquely linked with particular simulations of morphological changes in a river. Finally, the maps are stochastically processed. The proposed procedure was applied for a selected reach of the Warta river, located in Poland. Simulations were run for 6‐ and 12‐year flow series composed randomly on the basis of historical data. The 30 flow series for each period and four functions describing the transport of sediment were treated as uncertain variables. It was assumed that the features characterising the mean sample may properly represent the sediment content in the river reach studied. The final results are presented as maps showing the probabilities of inundation. The comparison of results with literature data confirmed the significance of the impact related to sediment transport processes on the quantification of flood hazard uncertainty. The main advantages of the presented algorithm are effective management of simulations and processing of results obtained in 240 runs of the sediment routing model.

中文翻译:

评估长期形态动力学对洪水灾害的影响的方法学的发展

提出了一种量化泥沙输送对洪水灾害影响的方法。所应用的算法由多个Python脚本组成,用于自动进行沉积物布设,流体动力学模拟以及结果的地理处理。洪水灾害图与河流形态变化的特定模拟有着独特的联系。最后,对地图进行随机处理。拟议的程序已应用于波兰Warta河的选定河段。对基于历史数据随机组成的6年和12年流量序列进行了模拟。每个时期的30个流量序列和描述泥沙输送的四个函数被视为不确定变量。假定表征平均样本的特征可以正确地代表所研究河段的泥沙含量。最终结果以地图形式显示,显示了淹没的可能性。将结果与文献数据进行比较,证实了与泥沙输送过程有关的影响对洪水危害不确定性的量化具有重要意义。提出的算法的主要优点是有效管理模拟和处理沉积物路由模型的240次运行中获得的结果。
更新日期:2020-08-11
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