It has been more than five years since the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative was put forward. During this time, the B&R countries have established many mutually beneficial development strategies, among which the establishment of common disaster prevention and relief strategies is an essential part of cooperation. However, we still lack an in-depth understanding of the driving factors of this cooperation and their linkages with the various disasters that may occur in the B&R region. This article explores what factors affect national disaster occurrence and loss and how the factors interact each other. We used the analyzes data from the Emergency Events Database covering 119 B&R countries that account for 68.07% of global disaster occurrences and 38.31% of global disaster losses, and build a structural equation model (SEM) to explore the driving factors of the various disasters that may affect these countries. The results show that national disasters (economic loss, death toll and population impact) are directly related to the disaster occurrence (frequency) and socioeconomic development level (GDP per capita). Socioeconomic development may increase disaster exposure and reduce vulnerability; therefore, this two-fold effect needs to be balanced during development. Ecological development affects disaster indirectly by influencing disaster frequency. The institutional development in these countries has a systemic effect on disasters by influencing both socioeconomic and ecological development. These findings provide strong policy support for integrating the disaster risk reduction agenda into national development plans to achieve the goal of disaster-resilient and sustainable development.

``一带一路''倡议提出至今已有五年多。“一带一路”沿线国家制定了许多互惠互利的发展战略，其中共同防灾救灾战略的建立是合作的重要组成部分。但是，我们仍然缺乏对这种合作的驱动因素及其与“一带一路”地区可能发生的各种灾难之间的联系的深入了解。本文探讨了哪些因素影响国家灾难的发生和损失以及这些因素之间如何相互作用。我们使用了来自119个“一带一路”沿线国家的紧急事件数据库中的分析数据，这些国家/地区占全球灾难发生的68.07％和全球灾难造成的38.31％，并建立结构方程模型（SEM），以探索可能影响这些国家的各种灾难的驱动因素。结果表明，国家灾害（经济损失，死亡人数和人口影响）与灾害的发生（频率）和社会经济发展水平（人均GDP）直接相关。社会经济发展可能会增加灾害风险并减少脆弱性；因此，在开发过程中需要平衡这种双重影响。生态发展通过影响灾害发生频率间接影响灾害。这些国家的体制发展通过影响社会经济和生态发展，对灾害产生了系统性影响。