Climate change adaptive management strategies for isolated habitats such as wetlands are urgently needed. Conservation areas managed for wildlife refuges can be considered a network, permitting the tracking of current climate conditions within the network under projected future climates. We ask how many classes of temporal climate dynamics exist within a set of 48 refuges that comprise a network of conservation areas. We identified the current-climate conditions of 48 US National Wildlife Refuges using their annual average of minimum temperature and annual precipitation. We then mapped the movement of analogous climates for each refuge from current to future-time periods under four climate projections. We identified distinct types of analog climate dynamics among the network of wildlife refuges that can inform climate-adaptive natural resource planning. We identified five analogous climate categories: (1) disappearing climates; (2) single-analogous climates; (3) multiple-analogous climates; (4) enduring climates; and (5) climate hubs, with some refuges occupying up to three classes. Using four climate projections, we found 10–25 refuges are climatically disappeared; 8–16 whose climate conditions appear in only one other unit; three whose current climate appears in many other refuges; three that are climatically stable; and four that are climate hubs. The relative geographic isolation of refuges makes them particularly appropriate for use as nodes in a network-based climate assessment. The climate classification of the nodes can help inform selection from among multiple refuge management strategies based on their relative analogous climate dynamics. For example, new refuges could be identified to account for species inhabiting climatically disappearing refuges.

中文翻译：

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从消失的气候到气候中心，野生动物保护区的五类气候风险

迫切需要针对湿地等孤立栖息地的气候变化适应性管理策略。为野生动物保护区管理的保护区可以被视为一个网络，允许在预测的未来气候下跟踪网络内的当前气候条件。我们询问在组成保护区网络的 48 个避难所中存在多少类时间气候动态。我们使用年平均最低气温和年降水量确定了 48 个美国国家野生动物保护区的当前气候条件。然后，我们在四种气候预测下绘制了每个避难所从当前到未来时间段的类似气候的运动图。我们在野生动物保护区网络中确定了不同类型的模拟气候动态，可以为气候适应性自然资源规划提供信息。我们确定了五个类似的气候类别：（1）消失的气候；(2) 单一类比气候；(3) 多类气候；(4) 持久的气候；(5) 气候中心，一些避难所最多占据三个等级。使用四个气候预测，我们发现 10-25 个避难所在气候上消失了；8-16 人，其气候条件仅出现在另外一个单元中；三人目前的气候出现在许多其他避难所；三是气候稳定；四个是气候中心。避难所的相对地理隔离使它们特别适合用作基于网络的气候评估中的节点。节点的气候分类有助于根据其相对类似的气候动态从多个避难所管理策略中进行选择。例如，可以确定新的避难所来解释栖息在气候上消失的避难所的物种。