In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.

中文翻译：

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通信文明之间因果联系概率的蒙特卡罗估计

在这项工作中，我们解决了估计银河系文明之间因果联系概率的问题。我们不对智能生命的起源和进化做任何假设。我们简单地假设一个因果连接的节点网络。这些节点以某种方式指代具有接收和发射电磁信号能力的智能代理。在这里，我们在银河系的简化草图中展示了网络的三参数统计蒙特卡罗模型。我们的目标是使用蒙特卡洛模拟来探索参数空间并分析因果联系的概率。我们发现，对于大多数模型而言，在数十年的监测中进行接触的几率都很低，除了那些拥有大量长期文明的星系。我们还发现，与活跃文明数量相比，因果联系的概率随着文明寿命的增加而显着增加。我们表明，当一个文明发现所需的通信技术时，发生联系的可能性最大。