This paper is designed to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of transportation systems and reduce traffic congestion through the use of simulation models and scenario development. A system dynamics framework is used to test and evaluate the alternatives of future strategies for the city of Surabaya, Indonesia. Some factors affecting the effectiveness of transport systems include operational effectiveness and service effectiveness, as well as uncertainty. To improve the effectiveness of transportation systems, several strategies can be implemented, such as subsidizing public transportation, increasing the cost of private vehicle parking fees, raising taxes on private vehicles, and reducing delays in public transportation through scenario development. Scenario results show that, by pursuing these strategies, effectiveness could be improved by 80% as the impact of the increase in operational and service effectiveness, helping to mitigate traffic congestion. Congestion could be reduced to 70% (on average) due to the decrease in daily traffic.

本文旨在通过使用仿真模型和场景开发来评估和提高运输系统的效率并减少交通拥堵。系统动力学框架用于测试和评估印度尼西亚泗水市未来策略的替代方案。影响运输系统有效性的一些因素包括运营有效性和服务有效性以及不确定性。为了提高交通运输系统的效率，可以实施几种策略，例如补贴公共交通，增加私家车停车费的成本，提高私家车税，以及通过情景开发减少公共交通的延误。方案结果表明，通过采取这些策略，由于运营和服务有效性提高的影响，可以将效率提高80％，从而有助于缓解交通拥堵。由于每日流量的减少，拥塞可以减少到平均70％。