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A new interval type-2 fuzzy approach for multi-scenario project cash flow assessment based on alternative queuing method and dependency structure matrix with a case study
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-11 , DOI: 10.1016/j.engappai.2020.103815
Seyed Ali Mirnezami , Seyed Meysam Mousavi , Vahid Mohagheghi

Managing project costs effectively, which comprises numerous aspects, is a highly complicated process for project managers that needs dependable cash knowledge in the entire life cycle of the project. Project managers’ proficiency and anticipating dependable cash flows lead to substantial improvements in project costs management. Moreover, healthy cash flow prognostication for the whole construction project gives project managers a real insight into the identification of problems, and its deficiency results in the failure of firms even with big profits to maintain themselves as well. Therefore, predicting reliable cash flow and monitoring the progress of projects in terms of cash are essential to be considered. Furthermore, due to the existence of uncertainties in projects, it is necessary to find it as a significant part of different approaches. Building upon these, an innovative approach is presented in this paper to prognosticate project cash flow based on both type-2 fuzzy extension of dependency structure matrix for project scheduling with overlapping activities and extended alternative queuing method under type-2 fuzzy environment to adopt the best scenario. Moreover, type-2 fuzzy numbers are applied to address the uncertainty of activities. Subsequently, a real case study of a gas field development project is employed to represent the efficiency of proposed approach. Ultimately, a comparative study is conducted to validate the results, and superiorities of the proposed approach are addressed from different aspects. The results illustrate that the presented approach is capable of handling real project problems and providing project managers with a suitable tool to comprehend the cash conditions of the projects.



中文翻译:

一种基于备选排队法和依存关系矩阵的多场景项目现金流评估的区间2型模糊方法及案例研究

对于项目经理而言,有效地管理项目成本(包括多个方面)是一个非常复杂的过程,在项目的整个生命周期中都需要可靠的现金知识。项目经理的熟练程度和预期可靠的现金流量导致项目成本管理的显着改善。此外,对整个建设项目的健康现金流预测可以使项目经理对问题的发现有真正的洞察力,而其缺陷会导致即使拥有高额利润的公司也无法维持自身。因此,必须考虑到可靠的现金流量预测和现金方面的项目进度监测。此外,由于项目中存在不确定性,因此有必要将其作为不同方法的重要组成部分。在此基础上,本文提出了一种创新的方法来预测项目现金流,该方法既基于依赖结构矩阵的2型模糊扩展,用于具有重叠活动的项目调度,又采用2型模糊环境下的扩展替代排队方法,以采用最佳方法场景。此外,使用2型模糊数来解决活动的不确定性。随后,以某气田开发项目的实际案例研究来代表所提出方法的效率。最终,进行了一项比较研究以验证结果,并且从不同方面解决了所提出方法的优势。

更新日期:2020-08-11
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