Abstract The feed-in tariff is a policy instrument designed to drop off the investment cost of solar energy, which has been thriving in Europe for many years. Similarly, tax-rebate regulation also aims to spur the diffusion of renewable technologies applied in America. However, it’s not clear that which policy is better off from the perspective of the members in the whole solar photovoltaic supply chain. To figure out this question, this paper establishes a novel solar photovoltaic supply chain structure in practice, including the government, a utility grid, an exclusive solar panel retailer, and households, where the households not only consume electricity but also generate energy to the utility. We also investigate a nonlinear dynamic system to study the long-term operations strategy, the stability of the equilibrium, and how the conservative and aggressive strategies impact the system. Interestingly, our finding shows chaos is not just an unfavorable phenomenon for everyone - for the players with risk preference, chaos might be a good ladder to achieve high returns. For those risk aversion players, we also provide a controlling method to control it back to a stable state.

中文翻译：

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上网电价或退税监管？太阳能光伏供应链动态决策模型

摘要 上网电价是一项旨在降低太阳能投资成本的政策工具，太阳能已在欧洲蓬勃发展多年。同样，退税监管也旨在刺激在美国应用的可再生技术的传播。但是，从整个太阳能光伏供应链的成员角度来看，哪种政策更好，尚不清楚。为了解决这个问题，本文在实践中建立了一种新型的太阳能光伏供应链结构，包括政府、公用电网、太阳能电池板独家零售商和家庭，家庭不仅消费电力，还为公用事业公司提供能源。 . 我们还研究了一个非线性动态系统来研究长期运营策略、均衡的稳定性、以及保守和激进的策略如何影响系统。有趣的是，我们的发现表明，混乱不仅仅是对每个人都不利的现象——对于有风险偏好的玩家来说，混乱可能是获得高回报的好阶梯。对于那些规避风险的玩家，我们还提供了一种控制方法，将其控制回稳定状态。