Current impact assessment methods do not have the capability to simulate the impacts of volcanic eruptions in both high-resolution spatial detail and as they vary through time under the economic structures of post-hazard event scenarios. We couple a land use change model and an economic model that can simulate post-hazard event economies and the impacts that occur over a 4-year period following a hypothetical eruption for the Auckland region of New Zealand. The eruption scenario includes pyroclastic surges and lava flows that directly impact an urban area of 9600 ha. The results illustrate that because of the cascading impacts on infrastructure networks, disruption to businesses and staff and connections within the economy, land use changes outside of the areas directly impacted by physical volcanic hazards are significant relative to the impacts on land use in areas directly affected by the physical hazards. The results also demonstrate the capability to simulate the dynamic recovery pathway of the economy after the eruption has occurred and that an integrated land use and economic model has the potential to serve as a basis for simulating and evaluating alternative redevelopment strategies for urban areas following volcanic eruptions.

中文翻译：

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新西兰奥克兰地区火山喷发后时变土地利用和经济影响的模拟

当前的影响评估方法无法在高分辨率空间细节方面模拟火山爆发的影响，因为它们在灾害后事件情景的经济结构下随时间变化。我们将土地利用变化模型和经济模型结合起来，可以模拟灾后事件经济以及新西兰奥克兰地区假设火山喷发后 4 年内发生的影响。喷发情景包括直接影响 9600 公顷市区的火山碎屑涌动和熔岩流。结果表明，由于对基础设施网络的连锁影响、对企业和员工以及经济中的联系的干扰，相对于直接受物理灾害影响地区的土地利用影响而言，受物理火山灾害直接影响地区以外的土地利用变化是显着的。结果还证明了模拟火山爆发后经济动态恢复路径的能力，并且综合土地利用和经济模型有可能作为模拟和评估火山爆发后城市地区替代重建策略的基础。 .