Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments.,Ecology Letters

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Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments.
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-10 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13582
Serguei Saavedra ₁ , Lucas P Medeiros ₁ , Mohammad AlAdwani ₁

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The persistence of a species in a given place not only depends on its intrinsic capacity to consume and transform resources into offspring, but also on how changing environmental conditions affect its growth rate. However, the complexity of factors has typically taken us to choose between understanding and predicting the persistence of species. To tackle this limitation, we propose a probabilistic approach rooted on the statistical concepts of ensemble theory applied to statistical mechanics and on the mathematical concepts of structural stability applied to population dynamics models – what we call structural forecasting. We show how this new approach allows us to estimate a probability of persistence for single species in local communities; to understand and interpret this probability conditional on the information we have concerning a system; and to provide out‐of‐sample predictions of species persistence as good as the best experimental approaches without the need of extensive amounts of data.

中文翻译：

在不断变化的环境中对物种持久性进行结构预测。

一个物种在给定位置的持久性不仅取决于其消耗资源并将其转化为后代的内在能力，还取决于不断变化的环境条件如何影响其生长速度。但是，因素的复杂性通常使我们在理解和预测物种的持久性之间做出选择。为了解决这一局限性，我们提出了一种概率方法，该方法源于应用于统计力学的整体理论的统计概念以及应用于人口动力学模型的结构稳定性的数学概念-我们称之为结构预测。我们将展示这种新方法如何使我们能够估计当地社区中单个物种的持久性概率；根据我们所掌握的有关系统的信息来理解和解释这种可能性；并提供最佳持久性的样本外预测以及最佳实验方法，而无需大量数据。

更新日期：2020-09-24

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