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Geospatial simulation steering for adaptive management
Environmental Modelling & Software ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104801
Anna Petrasova , Devon A. Gaydos , Vaclav Petras , Chris M. Jones , Helena Mitasova , Ross K. Meentemeyer

Spatio-temporal simulations are becoming essential tools for decision makers when forecasting future conditions and evaluating effectiveness of alternative decision scenarios. However, lack of interactive steering capabilities limits the value of advanced stochastic simulations for research and practice. To address this gap we identified conceptual challenges associated with steering stochastic, spatio-temporal simulations and developed solutions that better represent the realities of decision-making by allowing both reactive and proactive, spatially-explicit interventions. We present our approach, in a participatory modeling case study engaging stakeholders in developing strategies to contain the spread of a tree disease in Oregon, USA. Using intuitive interfaces, implemented through web-based and tangible platforms, stakeholders explored management options as the simulation progressed. Spatio-temporal steering allowed them to combine currently used management practices into novel adaptive management strategies, which were previously difficult to test and assess, demonstrating the utility of interactive simulations for decision-making.



中文翻译:

用于自适应管理的地理空间模拟转向

时空模拟正在成为决策者在预测未来情况并评估替代决策场景的有效性时必不可少的工具。但是,缺乏交互式操纵功能限制了先进的随机模拟在研究和实践中的价值。为了解决这一差距,我们确定了与转向随机时空模拟相关的概念挑战,并通过允许反应性和前瞻性的,在空间上明确的干预措施,开发了更好地代表决策现实的解决方案。在一个参与性建模案例研究中,我们介绍了我们的方法,让利益相关者参与制定策略来遏制美国俄勒冈州树木疾病的蔓延。使用通过基于Web的有形平台实现的直观界面,随着模拟的进行,利益相关者探索了管理选项。时空导向使他们能够将当前使用的管理实践结合到新颖的自适应管理策略中,这些策略以前很难进行测试和评估,从而证明了交互式模拟在决策中的效用。

更新日期:2020-08-19
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