The intercontinental liner shipping services transport containers between two continents and they are crucial for the profitability of a global liner shipping company. In the daily operations of an intercontinental liner shipping service, however, container slot bookings from customers can be freely cancelled during a booking period, which causes loss of revenue and low utilization of ship capacity. Though a pain-point of the liner shipping industry, the container slot cancellation problem has not yet been well investigated in the literature. To fill this research gap, this study aims to estimate the probability for the cancellation of container slot booking in the long haul transports of the intercontinental liner shipping service by considering the primary influential factors of cancellation behavior. To achieve the objective, a container slot booking data-driven model is developed by means of a time-to-event modeling technique. To incorporate the effect of booking region on the cancellation probability, we introduce the frailty term in the model to capture the regionality of the container shipping market. Our case study with real slot booking data shows that the developed model performs well in forecasting the loaded containers of the slot booking requests. In addition, we shed light on how the internal factors of slot booking and external factors of shipping market influence the probability of cancellation.

洲际班轮运输服务在两个大洲之间运输集装箱，它们对于一家全球班轮运输公司的盈利能力至关重要。但是，在洲际班轮运输服务的日常运营中，可以在预订期间免费取消客户的集装箱舱位预订，这会导致收益损失和船舶运力利用率低下。尽管是班轮运输业的痛点，但是在文献中尚未对集装箱槽口取消问题进行充分研究。为了填补这一研究空白，本研究旨在通过考虑取消行为的主要影响因素，来估计洲际班轮运输服务的长途运输中取消集装箱舱位预订的可能性。为了达到目的，借助事件时间建模技术，开发了一个由货位预订数据驱动的模型。为了纳入预订区域对取消概率的影响，我们在模型中引入了脆弱性术语，以捕获集装箱运输市场的区域性。我们的实际舱位预订数据案例研究表明，开发的模型在预测舱位预订请求的已装载集装箱方面表现良好。此外，我们阐明了航班预订的内部因素和航运市场的外部因素如何影响取消的可能性。我们的实际舱位预订数据案例研究表明，开发的模型在预测舱位预订请求的已装载集装箱方面表现良好。此外，我们阐明了航班预订的内部因素和航运市场的外部因素如何影响取消的可能性。我们的实际舱位预订数据案例研究表明，开发的模型在预测舱位预订请求的已装载集装箱方面表现良好。此外，我们阐明了航班预订的内部因素和航运市场的外部因素如何影响取消的可能性。