Abstract

Land cover change has direct effects on ecological functions and processes of landscape and natural resources. Forest degradation affects watershed processes and biochemical cycles and leads to soil erosion and water shortage; therefore it is necessary that the spatial dimensions of land use and land cover are identified regularly so that the policy makers and researcher are enabled to make the necessary decisions. Patterns of land use and land cover changes indicate the changes in social and economic conditions. Monitoring such changes is essential for coordinated activities at national and international levels. In recent years, due to easy access to satellite imagery and capabilities of GIS, land use and land cover changes modeling and prediction is very common. To this end, different methods such as statistical techniques like logistic regression, Markov chain analysis and cellular automata have been developed. This study has been done to investigate the land use and land cover changes in Yasouj city area using CA–Markov from 1987 to 2039. Markov chain analysis will describe land use changes from one to another period and use this as a basis to project future changes. This is possible with the development of land use change transition probability matrix from one time to another; which indicates the nature of changes and its application to project changes in the next time period. Results of model and its simulation showed that the area percentage of natural lands (forests and rangelands) in 1987, 1999, 2013 and 2039 was 90, 82, 73 and 59 respectively. The area percentage of man-made lands (farmlands and residential area) in 1987, 1999, 2013 and 2039 was 10, 18, 27 and 41 respectively. Therefore, it can be said that the natural lands in the study area are becoming man-made lands so that in about 40 years (1987–2013), about 30% of the natural lands will decrease. This could have dangerous environmental consequences for the study area. Results of logistic regression with Pseudo R² 0.3 and ROC about 0.8 represent the relative agreement of the model with actual changes and the appropriate ability of the model for estimating changes in land use and land cover in the last 26 years. Results on simulation of land cover map in 2013 and 2039 showed that CA–Markov has a high ability and capability in land cover changes modeling. In this study the accuracy of the resulting land cover map was 80%.

中文翻译：

---

伊朗Kohgiluyeh Va Boyerahmad省Yasouj市郊区的土地利用/土地覆盖变化检测与预测

摘要

土地覆盖变化直接影响生态功能以及景观和自然资源的过程。森林退化影响流域过程和生化循环，并导致土壤侵蚀和缺水；因此，有必要定期确定土地使用和土地覆盖的空间尺寸，以便决策者和研究人员能够做出必要的决定。土地利用和土地覆被变化的模式表明了社会和经济状况的变化。监测此类变化对于在国家和国际层面进行协调活动至关重要。近年来，由于容易获得卫星图像和GIS的功能，土地利用和土地覆被变化的建模和预测非常普遍。为此，已经开发了不同的方法，例如逻辑回归等统计技术，马尔可夫链分析和细胞自动机。这项研究的目的是使用1987年至2039年间使用CA–Markov来调查Yasouj市地区的土地利用和土地覆盖变化。Markov链分析将描述一个时期到另一个时期的土地利用变化，并以此为基础来预测未来的变化。随着土地利用变化过渡概率矩阵从一次到另一次的发展，这是可能的。它指示更改的性质及其在下一时间段内对项目更改的应用。模型及其模拟结果表明，1987年，1999年，2013年和2039年自然土地（森林和牧场）的面积百分比分别为90、82、73和59。1987年，1999年，2013年和2039年的人造土地（农田和居住区）面积百分比分别为10、18、27和41。因此，可以说研究区的自然土地正在变成人造土地，因此在大约40年（1987年至2013年）中，大约30％的自然土地将减少。这可能会对研究区域造成危险的环境后果。用伪R进行逻辑回归的结果² 0.3和ROC约0.8代表模型与实际变化的相对一致性，以及模型在过去26年中估算土地利用和土地覆盖变化的适当能力。2013年和2039年的土地覆盖图模拟结果表明，CA–Markov具有较高的能力和能力，可以进行土地覆被变化建模。在这项研究中，生成的土地覆盖图的准确性为80％。