Drought is one of the natural hazards affecting all activities of living things. High and low droughts occur in different parts of the country, and their effects are more noticeable in arid and semiarid regions. One of these areas is the south-west of Iran. The purpose of this study is drought modelling and analysis in the south-west of Iran. To do this, climatic parameters were first used, including precipitation, temperature, sunshine, relative humidity and wind speed in the period of 32 years (1987–2018) at 15 stations in the south-west of Iran. For modelling the TIBI fuzzy index, at first, four indices (SET, SPI, SEB and MCZI) were fuzzy in MATLAB software, and then the indices were compared and finally SAW multivariate decision-making model was used to prioritize areas affected by drought. The results of this study showed that the highest frequency of drought at 6- and 12-month scale occurred in Islamabad Gharb station and the lowest frequency was in Hamedan airport station. The T.I.B.I index accurately reflects the four indicators: SET, SPI, SEB and MCZI. Based on the modelling, T.I.B.I fuzzy index showed relative superiority to the SPEI fuzzy index. Finally, according to the SAW multivariate decision-making method, the Islamabad Gharb station with a score of 1 was more prone to drought occurrence.

中文翻译：

---

位于波斯湾北部的伊朗西部和西南部城市使用新模糊指数监测、分析和估计干旱率

干旱是影响生物所有活动的自然灾害之一。全国各地均有高低干旱，干旱半干旱地区影响更为明显。这些地区之一是伊朗的西南部。本研究的目的是伊朗西南部的干旱建模和分析。为此，首先使用了气候参数，包括伊朗西南部 15 个站点 32 年（1987-2018 年）期间的降水、温度、日照、相对湿度和风速。对TIBI模糊指数建模，首先在MATLAB软件中对4个指数（SET、SPI、SEB和MCZI）进行模糊处理，然后对这些指数进行比较，最后利用SAW多元决策模型对受干旱影响的地区进行优先排序。本研究结果表明，6 个月和 12 个月尺度的干旱频率最高发生在伊斯兰堡 Gharb 站，频率最低的是哈马丹机场站。TIBI 指数准确反映了四个指标：SET、SPI、SEB 和 MCZI。基于建模，TIBI模糊指数显示出相对于SPEI模糊指数的优越性。最后，根据SAW多元决策方法，得分为1的Islamabad Gharb站更容易发生干旱。