Projections of climate change impacts on living resources are being conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system models (ESMs), and both structural and parameter uncertainty in species distribution modelling. Here, we conducted 8964 unique 21st century projections for shifts in suitable habitat for seven economically important marine species including American lobster, Pacific halibut, Pacific ocean perch, and summer flounder. For all species, both the ESM used to simulate future temperatures and the niche modelling approach used to represent species distributions were important sources of uncertainty, while variation associated with parameter values in niche models was minor. Greenhouse gas emissions scenario contributed to uncertainty for projections at the century scale. The characteristics of projection uncertainty differed among species and also varied spatially, which underscores the need for improved multi-model approaches with a suite of ESMs and niche models forming the basis for uncertainty around projected impacts. Ensemble projections show the potential for major shifts in future distributions. Therefore, rigorous future projections are important for informing climate adaptation efforts.

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表征气候影响预测的不确定性：以北美大陆架上的七个海洋物种为例的研究

经常进行气候变化对生物资源影响的预测，目标通常是为政策提供信息。如果不确定性得到有效量化，物种预测将更加有用。但是，很少有研究对温室气体情景，地球系统模型（ESM）以及物种分布建模中的结构和参数不确定性引起的投影不确定性进行全面描述。在这里，我们进行了8964个独特的21世纪预测，以预测七个经济上重要的海洋物种，包括美国龙虾，太平洋大比目鱼，太平洋鲈鱼和夏季比目鱼的适宜栖息地的变化。对于所有物种，用于模拟未来温度的ESM和用于表示物种分布的利基建模方法都是不确定性的重要来源，而利基模型中与参数值相关的变化很小。温室气体排放情景加剧了本世纪预测的不确定性。预测不确定性的特征在物种之间有所不同，并且在空间上也有所不同，这突显了对改进的多模型方法的需求，该方法需要一套ESM和细分模型来构成有关预计影响的不确定性的基础。总体预测显示未来发行版可能会发生重大变化。因此，未来的严格预测对于通知气候适应工作至关重要。预测不确定性的特征在物种之间有所不同，并且在空间上也有所不同，这突显了对改进的多模型方法的需求，该方法需要一套ESM和细分模型来构成有关预计影响的不确定性的基础。总体预测显示未来发行版可能会发生重大变化。因此，未来的严格预测对于通知气候适应工作至关重要。预测不确定性的特征在物种之间有所不同，并且在空间上也有所不同，这突显了对改进的多模型方法的需求，该方法需要一套ESM和细分模型来构成有关预计影响的不确定性的基础。总体预测显示未来发行版可能会发生重大变化。因此，未来的严格预测对于通知气候适应工作至关重要。