In the face of ongoing global climate and land use change, organisms have multiple possibilities to cope with the modification of their environment. The two main possibilities are to either adapt locally or disperse to a more suitable habitat. The evolution of both local adaptation and dispersal interacts and can be influenced by the spatial and temporal variation (of e.g. temperature or precipitation). In an individual based model (IBM), we explore evolution of phenotypes in landscapes with varying degree of spatial relative to global temporal variation in order to examine its influence on the evolution of dispersal, niche optimum and niche width. The relationship between temporal and spatial variation did neither influence the evolution of local adaptation in the niche optimum nor of niche widths. Dispersal probability is highly influenced by the spatio‐temporal relationship: with increasing spatial variation, dispersal probability decreases. Additionally, the shape of the distribution of the trait values over patch attributes switches from hump‐ to U‐shaped. At low spatial variance more individuals emigrate from average habitats, at high spatial variance more from extreme habitats. The comparatively high dispersal probability in extreme patches of landscapes with a high spatial variation can be explained by evolutionary succession of two kinds of adaptive response. Early in the simulations, extreme patches in landscapes with a high spatial variability act as sink habitats, where population persistence depends on highly dispersive individuals with a wide niche. With ongoing evolution, local adaptation of the remaining individuals takes over, but simultaneously a possible bet‐hedging strategy promotes higher dispersal probabilities in those habitats. Here, in generations that experience extreme shifts from the temporal mean of the patch attribute, the expected fitness becomes higher for dispersing individuals than for philopatric individuals. This means that under certain circumstances, both local adaptation and high dispersal probability can be selected for for coping with the projected environmental changes in the future.

中文翻译：

---

相对于时间变化的空间变化程度影响扩散的演变

面对不断变化的全球气候和土地利用变化，有机体有多种应对环境变化的可能性。两种主要可能性是要么局部适应，要么分散到更合适的栖息地。局部适应性和分散性的演化相互作用，并且可能受到时空变化（例如温度或降水）的影响。在一个基于个人的模型（IBM）中，我们研究了表型在具有相对于全球时间变化的空间变化程度的景观中的演变，以便研究其对分散，生态位最优和生态位宽度演变的影响。时间和空间变化之间的关系既不影响生态位最优的局部适应性进化，也不影响生态位宽度。时空关系极大地影响了散布概率：随着空间变化的增加，散布概率减小。此外，特征值在面片属性上的分布形状从驼峰形转换为U形。在低空间方差下，​​更多的人从平均栖息地移居，而在高空间方差下，​​更多的人从极端栖息地移居。空间变异大的极端地形中较高的散布概率可以通过两种自适应响应的演化演替来解释。在模拟的早期，具有高空间变异性的景观中的极端斑块充当汇聚栖息地，那里的人口持久性取决于具有广泛利基的高度分散的个体。随着不断的发展，其余个体的本地适应将接管工作，但同时采取一种对冲策略可促进这些生境中较高的分散概率。在这里，在经历了斑块属性的时间均值极大变化的世代中，分散个体的期望适应性比亲密个体的适应性更高。这意味着在某些情况下，可以选择局部适应性和高分散概率来应对将来的预期环境变化。